Jammu and Kashmir warming faster than the world; scientists warn the Himalayas are reaching a tipping point.

In just the first five days of the 2026 holy Amarnath Yatra, the naturally formed ice lingam at the cave shrine melted by over 90 per cent.

While the rapid disappearance and early melting of Baba Barfani have become a recurring issue over the last few years, sparking debates about heavy human activity in the delicate environment, Scientists say it is also a sign that the Himalayas are experiencing rising temperatures.

Is Jammu and Kashmir, home to some of the most climate-sensitive landscapes in the Himalayas,  warming at an alarming pace?

Accelerated glacier retreat, including that of key glaciers like Kolahoi and Thajwas, the vanishing lakes (according to a CAG report,, nearly 600 lakes have either shrunk or vanished since 1967), the heatwaves in summers, warmer nights, and waning snow has become common occurance.

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Now, a study has confirmed these doubts.

A new study published in Scientific Reports has found that the region has warmed by nearly 1°C over the past two decades, with the sharpest rise occurring in the Pir Panjal and Greater Himalayan ranges.

The warming is significantly faster than the global average for land areas, raising concerns about the future of glaciers, snowfall, water security and mountain ecosystems.

The study, Warming of the High-Mountainous Climate Sensitive Jammu and Kashmir During the Period 1980–2024, analysed more than four decades of temperature data and found that temperatures in the region are increasing rapidly compared with most regions worldwide and the plains of India. The researchers also said minimum (night-time) temperatures are increasing faster than daytime temperatures - a trend that accelerates glacier melt and reduces snow's ability to persist through winter.

Scientists warn that the changes unfolding in Jammu and Kashmir have consequences far beyond the region, as the Himalayas feed river systems that sustain millions of people across northern India.

In an interview with Firstpost, the study’s lead researcher, Dr Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath,  Associate Professor, IIT Kharagpur, explains what the findings mean for the region, why the Himalayas are warming so rapidly, and what policymakers need to do before the impacts become irreversible.

1. What is the single most important finding of your study?

The most important fact is that Jammu and Kashmir has become nearly 1 °C warmer over the last two decades, and the warming is happening faster in the Himalayan mountains than in lower-elevation areas.

This is a clear sign that climate change is already affecting one of India's most climate-sensitive regions.

Global land temperatures have risen by about 0.2 °C per decade in recent decades. Many regions of India and mountainous areas worldwide have experienced warming of roughly 0.2-0.45 °C per decade.

Compared with these benchmarks, the warming observed in Jammu and Kashmir is exceptionally rapid and warrants attention.

2. What and why should people in Jammu and Kashmir and across India be concerned?

People should be concerned because the Himalayas are often called India's water tower.

The snow and glaciers here feed major rivers that provide water to millions of people. If the mountains continue to warm, glaciers will melt faster, snowfall will decrease, and water availability could become less reliable.

This affects not only Jammu and Kashmir but also many downstream states that depend on Himalayan rivers for drinking water, farming and

hydropower.

3. Your study shows that Jammu and Kashmir has been warming over the past four decades. Which regions are experiencing the fastest warming, and what is causing these changes?

Our study found that the mid- and high-elevation regions of Jammu and Kashmir are warming the fastest, particularly in the Pir Panjal and Greater Himalayan ranges.

These mountain areas are more sensitive to climate change than the plains.

Numerous factors are responsible for this.

Greenhouse gases released from human activities are warming the planet. In the Himalaya, this warming is amplified because snow and ice are shrinking. Fresh snow reflects sunlight, but as it melts, the darker ground beneath absorbs more heat, warming the region even faster.

Changes in clouds, atmospheric moisture, vegetation, and atmospheric circulation also contribute to this enhanced warming.

4. You found that minimum temperatures are rising faster than maximum temperatures. Why is this significant, and what does it mean for glaciers, snowfall and water resources in the Himalayas?

This is one of the most worrying findings of our study. Night-time temperatures are increasing faster than daytime temperatures.

This suggests that the mountains are not cooling down as much after sunset, which is also a clear sign of the impact of global warming. This matters because glaciers and snow need cold nights to remain stable.

Warmer nights mean snow melts earlier, glaciers lose more ice, and less snowfall stays on the mountains. Gradually, this reduces the natural water storage in the Himalaya.

Rivers may carry more water initially, as glaciers melt faster. But in the long run, as glaciers shrink, river flows can decline, particularly during dry seasons. That creates challenges for drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, and ecosystems.

5. How do your findings help explain recent events in Kashmir, such as shrinking snow cover, drying lakes, glacier retreat, and concerns over the Amarnath pilgrimage route?

Our results provide strong scientific evidence that these events are connected to a warming climate. Higher temperatures lead to less snowfall, earlier snowmelt, and faster glacier retreat.

This explains why snow- covered areas are becoming smaller and why glaciers are losing ice.

The warming also affects lakes and wetlands because higher temperatures increase evaporation and change rainfall patterns. As a result, many water bodies face greater stress.

For the Amarnath pilgrimage, warmer conditions can shorten the period during which the naturally formed ice Shivling remains intact.

Although the size of the ice formation also depends on snowfall, rainfall, humidity, and cave conditions, rising temperatures increase the risk that it forms later or melts earlier than in the past.

6. What are the biggest implications for people in Jammu and Kashmir?

The impacts extend across sectors. Farmers may face lower yields in crops such as apples, saffron and walnuts, alongside greater pest pressure and water stress.

Winter tourism could suffer from reduced snowfall, biodiversity may decline as species lose cold habitats, water supplies could become less predictable, and climate-related disasters - including flash floods, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods - are likely to become more frequent.

7. What should policymakers do over the next decade?

The Himalayas must be treated as a climate priority.

Governments should strengthen glacier, snow and weather monitoring, expand early warning systems, conserve forests and wetlands, improve water management and promote climate-resilient agriculture. Infrastructure planning must account for future climate risks, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains essential. Establishing a climate-risk calendar linked to early warning systems would also improve preparedness and disaster response.