Monsoon arrives in Kerala 9 days late, weakest rainfall in 11 years expected

The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on Thursday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said.

The monsoon has arrived nine days later than initially forecast. At first, the IMD said the monsoon would arrive on May 26 but later revised the date to June 1.

The IMD on Thursday said the southwest monsoon has advanced to cover the entirety of Kerala — the arrival of the monsoon in the state marks its formal onset in the country.

"The southwest monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, some parts of west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep islands, Kerala, and Mahe, some parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of Comorin area, southeast Bay of Bengal and some more parts of southwest, west-central, east-central and northeast Bay of Bengal today the 4th June, 2026," the IMD said in a statement carried by PTI.

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The IMD has forecast below-average rainfall this year, with estimates saying that it could be the weakest rainy season in the past 11 years.

Last month, Earth Sciences Ministry Secretary M Ravichandran said India is expected to receive 90 per cent of the average rainfall, below the April forecast of 92 per cent. He noted that this would be the weakest monsoon since 2015. He added that El Nino will be an influential factor.

El Nino is expected to range between moderate and strong in the latter half of the monsoon season, according to Ravichandran.

El Nino refers to a climate pattern in which sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This alters air pressure, cloud formation, and wind patterns, and usually translates into weaker monsoons for India.

The monsoon is critical for India as it delivers almost 70 per cent of the rainfall needed to water crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane. It is also critical to replenishing aquifers and reservoirs.