El Niño returns: Why India’s farmers are bracing for a weaker monsoon and greater climate risks

The return of El Niño is once again raising concerns for India’s agriculture sector, with global weather agencies warning that the climate phenomenon could trigger higher temperatures, delayed monsoon rains and more erratic weather patterns in the months ahead.

For a country where millions of farmers still depend on rainfall, the implications stretch far beyond weather forecasts and into food security, rural incomes and crop production.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions are developing, with an 80 per cent chance of forming between June and August and a strong likelihood of persisting through November. Forecasts suggest the event could be moderate to strong, increasing the risk of heatwaves, droughts and rainfall disruptions across several parts of the world, including South Asia.

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What is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It typically develops every two to seven years and influences weather systems across the globe. While each event is different, El Niño is generally associated with warmer global temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution.

For India, El Niño has historically been linked to weaker southwest monsoons, although the relationship is not always straightforward. A moderate or strong event can reduce rainfall in key agricultural regions and increase the likelihood of prolonged dry spells.

How could it affect India this year?

The biggest concern is uncertainty. Farmers rely on the timing and distribution of rainfall as much as total precipitation. Even a modest rainfall deficit can complicate decisions around sowing, irrigation and crop selection. According to reports, hot and dry conditions linked to the emerging El Niño pattern are already disrupting agricultural activity across Asia, with concerns growing over crop yields and food supplies.

Rikin Gandhi, CEO of Digital Green Foundation said the unpredictability is already being felt on the ground.

“India's 2026 monsoon is projected at only around 90% of the long-period average, potentially the weakest monsoon in more than a decade due to El Niño conditions.

For a country where nearly half of farmland is rainfed, even small rainfall deficits create major risks for decisions on sowing, irrigation and crop choices,” he said.

Why farmers are increasingly worried

The challenge extends beyond rainfall. Rising temperatures can damage crops directly and create favourable conditions for pests and diseases.

Nidhi Bhasin, CEO of Digital Green India, said the effects are already visible across multiple states and farming systems. “El Niño is reshaping Indian agriculture before our eyes, triggering prolonged heatwaves, delaying the southwest monsoon, and bringing uneven rainfall that is forcing farmers into high-stakes decisions amid deepening uncertainty,” she said.

In Bihar, maize farmers are reportedly adjusting irrigation schedules and rethinking sowing plans as high temperatures affect flowering and increase the threat of fall armyworm infestations. In southern India, tomato and chilli growers are increasingly relying on mulching, shade management and other climate-smart techniques to reduce heat stress and protect yields.

The risks extend to livestock as well. In Maharashtra, dairy farmers are grappling with heat stress among cattle and concerns over water availability. These concerns mirror broader warnings from international agencies. A recent FAO-WMO report noted that extreme heat is becoming a major threat to food systems, reducing agricultural productivity, increasing water stress and intensifying pest outbreaks.

Can technology help farmers adapt?

As climate volatility increases, experts argue that resilience is becoming as much an information challenge as an agricultural one. Digital Green’s AI-powered advisory platform, FarmerChat, aims to provide farmers with hyperlocal weather alerts and crop-specific guidance. The idea is simple: help farmers make decisions before weather shocks occur rather than after damage has already been done.

Gandhi recalled meeting coconut farmers in Karnataka who had been waiting for rains that forecasts predicted but never delivered. One farmer, he said, used AI-based guidance to explore red gram cultivation as a complementary crop better suited to uncertain rainfall conditions.

For Bhasin, the value of such tools lies in converting climate forecasts into practical decisions. “AI turns climate intelligence into action farmers can take today, helping them anticipate risks, reduce avoidable input costs, protect yields, and strengthen food security for India,” she said.

The bigger picture

Scientists caution that El Niño is colliding with a warmer world. While climate change does not necessarily cause El Niño, it can amplify its effects by increasing background temperatures and making extreme weather events more damaging.

That means India’s farmers are not simply preparing for another weather cycle. They are adapting to a future in which rainfall patterns, temperatures and growing conditions are becoming increasingly unpredictable.

For policymakers, agribusinesses and farmers alike, the lesson is becoming clearer: climate resilience will depend not only on water, seeds and infrastructure, but also on timely information that enables better decisions in an era of growing uncertainty.