Ebola outbreak not a pandemic emergency, but a high-risk regional health concern: WHO

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that the Ebola outbreak spreading across eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and into neighbouring Uganda poses a “high” risk at national and regional levels, while stressing that the situation does not currently qualify as a global pandemic emergency.

The assessment comes amid mounting fears over the rapid spread of the rare Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, which circulated undetected for weeks before authorities confirmed infections. WHO officials say the outbreak is likely far larger than official numbers suggest, raising concerns over surveillance gaps, delayed detection and the fragility of regional health systems already strained by conflict and displacement.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said 51 confirmed Ebola cases have been recorded in Congo’s Ituri and North Kivu provinces, along with two confirmed cases in Uganda’s capital Kampala including one death. A US national working in Congo has also tested positive and was transferred to Germany for treatment.

However, the confirmed cases represent only a fraction of the outbreak’s likely scale. WHO estimates there are nearly 600 suspected cases and around 139 suspected deaths linked to the virus. “We know that the scale of the epidemic is much larger,” Tedros said, warning that case numbers are expected to rise further because the virus circulated unnoticed for months before detection.

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Why WHO stopped short of declaring a pandemic emergency

Although WHO recently classified the outbreak as a “public health emergency of international concern” (PHEIC) — the organisation’s second-highest alert level under international health regulations — experts concluded that the situation has not crossed the threshold required for a pandemic emergency declaration.

The distinction is significant. A PHEIC signals that coordinated international action is needed to contain a serious health threat, but a pandemic designation would imply sustained and uncontrolled global transmission.

WHO’s emergency committee said current evidence suggests the outbreak remains largely concentrated within a regional corridor, despite cross-border spread.

Committee chair Lucille Blumberg said the present conditions “do not satisfy the criteria for a pandemic emergency.” WHO’s latest risk assessment also categorised the threat to the wider world as “low,” reflecting limited evidence of widespread international transmission so far.

Still, WHO officials acknowledge several factors make the outbreak particularly dangerous. The Bundibugyo strain is rare and lacks approved vaccines or targeted treatments, unlike the more common Zaire strain of

Ebola for which vaccines exist. Health experts say the absence of medical countermeasures complicates efforts to quickly contain transmission.

Investigators also believe the outbreak may have begun months ago in eastern Congo before being recognised. WHO technical officer Anais Legand said the delayed detection allowed transmission chains to expand significantly. The eastern DRC region, plagued by armed conflict, weak healthcare infrastructure and population displacement, presents major challenges for contact tracing and isolation measures.

The regional nature of the outbreak is another concern. Uganda’s confirmation of cases in Kampala, a major transport hub, has heightened fears of further cross-border spread in East and Central Africa. WHO has intensified coordination with neighbouring countries to strengthen screening, testing capacity and emergency preparedness.

Public anxiety grows as health systems race to contain spread

The outbreak has already triggered visible public anxiety in affected areas. Residents in Congo have reported surging prices for face masks and disinfectants as fears of infection spread. Aid agencies and local health workers are attempting to expand awareness campaigns while improving access to protective supplies.

The delayed identification of the outbreak has also drawn political scrutiny. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticised WHO for being “a little late” in identifying the epidemic. Tedros pushed back against the criticism, arguing that outbreak detection and reporting primarily depend on national authorities, while WHO’s role is to support member states under international health regulations.

The debate echoes broader tensions surrounding global health governance that intensified during the Covid-19 pandemic. Former US President Donald Trump had previously initiated a US withdrawal from WHO, accusing the agency of mishandling pandemic responses.

Yet public health experts warn that the current Ebola outbreak underscores the importance of sustained international coordination rather than political fragmentation. Unlike Covid-19, Ebola spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids and is generally less transmissible through casual interaction. That limits its pandemic potential, but its high fatality rate makes rapid containment critical.

WHO officials say the coming weeks will determine whether emergency interventions can break transmission chains before the outbreak expands further across the region. While the organisation insists the global risk remains low, the situation in Congo and Uganda highlights how delayed detection, fragile healthcare systems and regional instability can quickly transform local outbreaks into major international health threats.