MI vs LSG IPL 2026 play-offs scenarios: How can the two laggards still finish in top 4 as do-or-die battle looms

Mumbai Indians (MI) and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) are set to lock horns at the Wankhede Stadium on Monday, May 4 in what has become a virtual do-or-die battle for both the sides in the Indian Premier League 2026 (IPL) season.

With both teams languishing at the bottom of the points table, a defeat here could virtually end their playoff aspirations, turning this encounter into a massive contest for both the sides.

The five-time champions have endured a dismal campaign so far. MI have played nine matches, securing just two wins and suffering seven losses for four points, with a net run rate (NRR) of -0.803.

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LSG have the same number of points but have a played one less game. Their abysmal NRR has put them even behind MI at the last spot in the points table.

With the high-stakes clash approaching, know what the two teams need to do to keep their hopes of qualifying for the play-offs alive.

MI IPL 2026 playoffs scenario

MI have lost seven matches already, meaning they cannot go to 16 points this season which is considered safe for qualification for play-offs. Ever since the tournament expanded to 10 teams in 2022, only once has a team with 14 points qualified for play-offs (RCB in 2024).

For that, MI will have to win all of their remaining five matches and that too with massive margins. By winning all their five remaining matches, MI will earn a total of 14 points and that will only be enough in case no more than three sides finish above or level with 14 points. A strong NRR and a lot of luck is needed for MI to go ahead.

If they lose one more game, even a mathematical chance for them can be ruled out.

LSG IPL 2026 playoffs scenario

LSG have six games left including the one against MI. Since they have played one game lesser, that is why they have just a little more leeway than MI.

The Rishabh Pant-led side also has to aim to win all remaining fixtures to hit a maximum of 16 points. If they win all their games, there is a good chance that they can qualify. However, even if they lose one match, they can still qualify but like MI they will also have to pray for a lot of things to go right.

If they lose two more games, they too will be out of the playoff race.