The US-Iran war is over. Who won, and who lost?

The United States and Iran have agreed to a framework intended to end a more than three-month long conflict that has already disrupted one of the world's most critical energy corridors, shook international markets.

The breakthrough, announced on June 14 and achieved through mediation led by Pakistan and Qatar, establishes a pathway toward ending military operations, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and beginning a new round of negotiations on issues that remain unresolved, including Iran's nuclear programme and sanctions relief.

The memorandum of understanding is scheduled to be formally signed in Geneva, Switzerland, on June 19.

A war that reshaped West Asia

The conflict began on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military operation against Iran.

Among those killed was Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a development that fundamentally altered the country's leadership structure. Following his death, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of supreme leader.

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According to reports emerging around the peace agreement, Mojtaba Khamenei remained largely out of public view throughout the conflict, though his approval was required before Tehran agreed to the ceasefire framework.

What followed was more than three months of escalating confrontation across multiple fronts.

Tehran launched attacks against Israel and Gulf states hosting American military installations while also effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints.

Washington responded by imposing a blockade on Iranian ports. Energy prices surged. Shipping routes were disrupted. Global supply chains came under pressure. Inflation concerns escalated in numerous countries.

Meanwhile, Lebanon became a major secondary theatre of the conflict as hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah escalated alongside the broader US-Iran confrontation.

By the time negotiators reached a framework agreement, thousands of people had been killed, with the heaviest casualties occurring in Iran and Lebanon.

The diplomatic breakthrough

The announcement of a deal came after months of intensive negotiations involving intermediaries from Pakistan and Qatar. US President Donald Trump announced the breakthrough on Truth Social.

"The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," Trump wrote. The declaration came shortly after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also confirmed that negotiators had reached an understanding.

According to Sharif, the agreement requires "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon."

Iran later issued its own confirmation. A statement from the secretariat of Iran's Supreme National Security Council declared that military activities would permanently cease beginning Monday night.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi subsequently explained that the framework represented only the first stage of a broader diplomatic process. According to him, a more comprehensive agreement would be negotiated during a 60-day ceasefire period.

Those negotiations are expected to focus on sanctions relief, the future of Iran's nuclear programme and the broader relationship between Tehran and Washington.

The agreement also includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the American naval blockade.

Announcing the decision, Trump wrote, "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!"

Winner: Global markets & energy consumers

Among the clearest beneficiaries of the agreement were international financial markets and countries dependent on stable energy supplies.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz had become one of the defining economic consequences of the conflict. Before the war, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil, natural gas and related petroleum products moved through the waterway.

The ceasefire announcement immediately triggered a positive reaction across financial markets.

Brent crude futures declined approximately 4 per cent in early trading, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell by more than 4 per cent. Other reports showed Brent falling to around $83.81 per barrel and WTI dropping to approximately $80.89 per barrel.

Stock markets across Asia also responded positively. Japan's Nikkei 225 index advanced 4.99 per cent, while South Korea's Kospi index surged 5.54 per cent as investors welcomed the prospect of reduced geopolitical risk and lower energy costs.

Gold also attracted significant attention. Spot gold climbed 2 per cent to a record $4,304.11 per ounce, reflecting continued demand for assets traditionally viewed as safe stores of value during periods of uncertainty.

Yet analysts cautioned that the economic recovery process would not be immediate.

Oil prices remain substantially higher than the levels seen before the war began. Before hostilities erupted, crude traded near $70 per barrel. Even after the post-agreement decline, prices remain significantly above that benchmark.

Industry experts have also warned that physical energy supplies cannot be restored overnight. For more than three months, tankers carrying crude oil remained stranded in the Persian Gulf as security concerns prevented normal maritime traffic.

Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining research at S&P Global Energy, explained the challenges involved in restarting operations.

"It’s going to take time for people to feel comfortable and for insurance to be in place ... particularly to get people on the ground to restart some of these assets," he told AP.

He also noted the practical difficulties associated with resuming tanker traffic. "To bring a ship in, you need to be confident that you’ve got a big enough window of safety to bring it in, load it and move it out," he added.

According to energy analysts, even with a ceasefire in place, the process of restoring normal supply chains could take months. Tankers must first exit the region before new vessels arrive. Crude oil must then be transported to refineries and processed before reaching consumers.

Some producers also halted extraction activities after storage facilities filled during the conflict. Restarting production adds another layer of complexity.

Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, suggested that countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may recover more quickly because they possess alternative export routes.

However, he warned that others face a longer path back to normal operations.

"But places like Iraq could be much more challenged because they’ve had a much bigger shut-in, their fields are more difficult ... it may well take about a year before they get back," he told AP.

Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, similarly argued that producers will want evidence that the ceasefire is durable before making major commitments.

"We don’t know what open means or what the speed of evacuation of trapped material is going to be," he told AP.

Winner: Pakistan and Qatar's diplomatic influence

The agreement represents a major diplomatic achievement for Pakistan and Qatar. Throughout the conflict, both countries served as intermediaries between Washington and Tehran, facilitating communication and helping bridge significant differences between the two sides.

The successful conclusion of negotiations has elevated their standing in international diplomacy and demonstrated the continuing importance of regional mediators in resolving major geopolitical crises.

Winner: Trump and the US administration

The agreement also provides a significant achievement for Trump.

The war increasingly became a domestic political challenge for the White House.

Rising fuel prices generated frustration among American voters ahead of November's midterm elections. Public opinion surveys showed growing concern over energy costs and the possibility of deeper US involvement in another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

At the same time, Trump faced competing pressures within his own political coalition.

Some Republicans argued that Iran's nuclear infrastructure must be completely dismantled before any agreement could be accepted. Others worried about the economic and political costs associated with an extended military campaign.

The ceasefire framework allows the administration to argue that it achieved key objectives without becoming trapped in a long-term ground war.

The timing of the announcement coincided with Trump's 80th birthday on Sunday. Yet criticism has not disappeared.

Former State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller argued that Washington may have made significant concessions without obtaining sufficient guarantees regarding Iran's nuclear activities.

"We have no assurances the nuclear program will ever be addressed, but Iran has shown the world it can take the global economy hostage and get something from the US in return," said Miller.

Nevertheless, leading Republican Iran hawk Senator Lindsey Graham welcomed the development. "Under our law, any nuclear deal with Iran will be sent to Congress for review and a vote," he said. "Congratulations to all in getting us to this point."

Winner & loser: Iran's mixed outcome

No country illustrates the complexity of the conflict's outcome more clearly than Iran. From a military and humanitarian perspective, Tehran paid an enormous price.

The country's supreme leader was killed in the opening strike. Senior military and political figures were also eliminated. Military infrastructure suffered extensive damage. Civilian casualties mounted over the course of the conflict.

The war also displaced large numbers of people and caused widespread destruction across parts of the country. Yet Iran emerged from negotiations having secured several important diplomatic openings.

Reports before the announcement suggested that billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets could be released as part of the broader peace process.

One account indicated that the framework would lead to the release of $12 billion before formal negotiations begin and potentially $24 billion over a 60-day period. Another report suggested the figure under discussion could reach $25 billion.

The agreement also creates an opportunity for discussions on lifting US sanctions and potentially addressing international restrictions imposed through the United Nations. Equally important, Tehran succeeded in ensuring that negotiations would continue rather than end with a purely military outcome.

Despite suffering extensive damage, Iran retains substantial strategic capabilities. The country still possesses a significant ballistic missile arsenal and continues to hold highly enriched uranium.

These realities have ensured that Iran remains a central participant in determining the future security architecture of the region.

Loser: Israel's diminished influence

Israel played a central role in launching the military campaign against Iran, but the diplomatic phase unfolded largely without its participation. Israeli officials were not party to the direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

This became particularly important regarding Lebanon. Throughout the talks, Iran insisted that any agreement include a complete halt to military operations involving Hezbollah and Israel.

Israeli leaders, meanwhile, maintained that they should retain operational flexibility in Lebanon. The disagreement created friction between Washington and Jerusalem.

According to reports, Trump personally updated Isreali Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on progress toward a deal during a phone call on Sunday. The relationship appeared strained in the closing stages of negotiations.

In an interview with The New York Times, Trump referred to Netanyahu as "a very difficult guy." The US president also argued that the Israeli leader should appreciate American efforts to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state.

The final agreement's requirement for a ceasefire in Lebanon means Israel must now operate within a framework that it did not directly negotiate.

Loser: Lebanon's devastating experience

Lebanon suffered some of the conflict's most severe collateral damage. As fighting intensified between Israel and Hezbollah, the country became a major battlefield within the wider regional confrontation.

Cross-border attacks caused extensive destruction, generated large-scale displacement and contributed significantly to the overall death toll. Thousands of people were killed during the broader conflict, many of them in Iran and Lebanon.

The ceasefire requirement covering Lebanon offers the prospect of stability, but rebuilding damaged infrastructure and assisting displaced communities will remain a major challenge.

Winner & loser: Gulf states

While the primary conflict was fought between the US/Israel coalition and Iran, several US-aligned Gulf Arab states became direct targets of Iranian retaliatory missile and drone strikes.

These nations — principally Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait — largely emerged as short-term losers due to physical and economic disruption, but long-term strategic winners because of the severe degradation of Iran's regional leverage.

The nuclear question remains unresolved

The future of Iran's nuclear programme will be negotiated during the next phase of talks. During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiated under US President Barack Obama.

That accord provided sanctions relief in exchange for restrictions and monitoring mechanisms governing Iran's nuclear activities. Following the US withdrawal, Iran expanded uranium enrichment.

According to the latest information, Tehran accumulated more than 400 kilogrammes of uranium enriched to levels approaching weapons-grade purity. The future of that material remains uncertain.

American officials want the stockpile removed or destroyed. Russia has reportedly offered to take custody of the uranium.

Iran, however, has maintained that it wants to retain the material and continues to insist that its nuclear programme serves peaceful purposes.

European governments have also linked future sanctions relief to verifiable limitations on Iranian nuclear activities. In a joint statement, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy expressed readiness to ease sanctions if Iran undertakes measurable and transparent steps regarding its programme.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer summarised the position of European powers. "We are clear that toll-free freedom of navigation must now be restored in the Strait of Hormuz," Starmer said. "Iran must never have a nuclear weapon."

With inputs from agencies