Explained: How Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest will impact polls in Andhra Pradesh

The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) workers staged a protest today (11 September) in Andhra Pradesh a day after its leader N Chandrababu Naidu was sent to a 14-day judicial custody concerning an alleged scam involving the State Skill Development Corporation. Naidu was arrested on Saturday (9 September) morning by the Andhra Pradesh Criminal Investigation Department (CID) in connection with the alleged scam that took place during his stint as the state chief minister from 2014 to 2019.His arrest has been condemned by the Opposition parties in the state, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Jana Sena Party (JSP) and the Congress. The development comes just months ahead of the Andhra Pradesh Assembly polls and the Lok Sabha elections next year.Will N Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest affect the polls in Andhra Pradesh? Let’s take a closer look at what’s happening.What’s the case?The AP Skill Development Corporation was set up by the Naidu government in 2016 to provide skill training to unemployed youth.The CID probe found that the TDP government signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for the project worth Rs 3,300 crore in collaboration with a consortium consisting of Siemens Industry Software India Ltd and Design Tech Systems Pvt Ltd, as per Hindustan Times (HT).While 10 per cent was to be invested by the AP government, the rest of the cost of the project was to be borne by Siemens. Under the project, Siemens was tasked with establishing six centres of excellence for skill development.It is alleged that the TDP government released Rs 371 crore funds for the project in the first three months of its launch, while Siemens did not invest anything.[caption id="attachment_13110472" align="alignnone" width="640"]

TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu was taken to prison on 10 September after being sent to 14-day judicial custody. PTI[/caption]Out of these funds, Rs 130 crore was spent on the project and Rs 241 crore was allegedly diverted to at least five shell companies, reported Indian Express. These shell companies were allegedly linked to some employees of Siemens and AP Skill Development Corporation.According to the CID, the project was launched without adhering to the standard tendering process.The department also claims that Naidu – who it says is the "prime conspirator” – and the TDP benefited from the alleged scam.The CID has signalled that Naidu's son and TDP general secretary Nara Lokesh’s role is also being investigated, as per NDTV.The CID nabbed the TDP chief at Nandyal in the early hours of Saturday. The former AP chief minister has denied any wrongdoing. “I have done nothing wrong. The CID has arrested me without any proof,” Naidu said after his arrest.How will it affect polls in AP?Naidu’s arrest has generated sympathy among TDP workers, who called for a state bandh today to express their protest.

The TPD has dubbed the arrest “illegal” and “politically motivated”, seeking President Droupadi Murmu, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah's intervention.AP is slated to hold state Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in April-May next year. According to Indian Express, analysts believe any public sympathy for Naidu might be “short-lived”.The BJP, which may support the ruling Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in the upcoming polls, has condemned Naidu’s arrest but stayed away from backing the bandh called by the TDP.Naidu’s TDP had left the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 2018 over the Centre not granting special category status to Andhra Pradesh after the bifurcation of the state. He is now trying to return to the NDA fold but has not received a go-ahead so far.The saffron party’s ally Jana Sena Party (JSP) of actor-politician Pawan Kalyan is reportedly keen on forging an alliance with the TDP to counter the YSRCP. But the BJP is likely to go with the ruling party for the upcoming polls.“The BJP’s priority in the south (where its electoral presence is limited) will be to check the Congress. The party has to ensure that the Congress’s gains in Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh are limited. The YSRCP has more potential for that,” a BJP leader told Indian Express in August.In the 2019 AP Assembly polls, the YSRCP registered a landslide victory bagging 151 of the total 175 seats. The TDP was reduced to 23 seats, while the JSP won one seat.The YSRCP also swept the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by winning 22 out of the total 25 seats, while the TDP managed to secure three seats.As per Indian Express, the ruling YSRCP has not lost its electoral footing in Andhra Pradesh. The Jagan Mohan Reddy-led state government’s welfare schemes are popular among the public, while the TDP has “failed” to unite anti-government votes, the newspaper reported in August citing BJP leaders.If the TDP wins in 2024, Naidu may hand over the leadership to his son Nara Lokesh, observers told Indian Express.Political reactions to Naidu’s arrestAndhra Pradesh BJP chief Daggubati Purandeswari, who is also also Naidu’s sister-in-law, condemned his arrest.JSP chief Kalyan called the incident "unfortunate in a democracy". In a veiled attack on chief minister Jagan Mohan Reddy, the actor-politician said, "The manner in which the former chief minister was arrested today (Saturday) is sad. We condemn in the strictest terms the way the state authorities and the ruling party are making arrests on the orders of one leader (chief minister Reddy)", reported ANI. As per The Hindu, the JSP has also backed the state bandh called by the TDP.Congress leader Surendra Rajput questioned the timing of Naidu's arrest, calling it a "political vendetta".YSRCP general secretary Sajjala Ramakrishna Reddy has denied that the arrest was "politically motivated”. He said as per Indian Express, “Chandrababu is alleging vendetta, given he was not named in the first CID FIR. But not naming him in the first FIR itself shows the honesty and integrity of the investigation agencies. This proves there was no political interference in the investigation. He can’t escape from this, and if someone thinks he is above the law because he was a former CM, he is wrong!”With inputs from agencies