UAE to exit Opec, Opec+ in strategic shift to boost output flexibility

The United Arab Emirates has announced it will withdraw from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance effective May 1, marking a significant shift in global oil geopolitics and potentially weakening the cartel’s grip on supply management.

The decision, framed as part of the UAE’s long-term economic and energy strategy, follows a comprehensive review of its production policies and capacity expansion plans. Abu Dhabi signalled that greater independence will allow it to respond more flexibly to market demand while accelerating investments across oil, gas, and low-carbon energy segments.

The move carries wider implications for OPEC’s influence. The UAE is one of the few members with significant spare production capacity and has historically played a crucial role in stabilising markets alongside Saudi Arabia. Its departure could structurally weaken the group’s ability to manage supply shocks and maintain price discipline.

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The timing is also critical. With ongoing geopolitical tensions triggering energy market volatility, the UAE’s exit raises questions about the future cohesion of OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia’s ability to continue acting as the central stabilising force in global oil markets.

Having been a member since 1967, the UAE’s departure ends nearly six decades of cooperation, signalling a new phase where national interest and production flexibility take precedence over collective output agreements.