No planes, no buyers: Iran war strands Gulf’s meat cargoes, Kenyan supplies 5% down

The deepening conflict in West Asia is now spilling far beyond oil and financial markets, disrupting a critical food supply chain linking East Africa to the Gulf. Fresh Israeli strikes inside Iran—including operations near the Caspian Sea and east of Tehran—have intensified fears of a prolonged war, further choking transport routes and leaving meat cargoes stranded at origin.

Exports of livestock and meat from Kenya and the wider Horn of Africa have plunged to as little as 5 per cent of normal levels during Ramadan, according to the country’s Meat and Livestock Exporters Industry Council, dealing a severe blow to pastoral economies that depend on Gulf demand during the peak festive season.

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Eid trade hit as logistics collapse

Exports of goat, sheep and cattle meat from countries such as Kenya have plunged dramatically. The Gulf—particularly the United Arab Emirates—accounts for a large share of this trade, making the disruption especially acute.

“There are no planes to carry the cargo,” exporters in Nairobi told the Financial Times, pointing to a near-total breakdown in air freight capacity, which handles the bulk of chilled meat shipments. With limited buyers and mounting inventories, exporters are now grappling with a glut at origin.

The timing could not be worse. Demand typically rises during Eid al-Fitr and peaks during Eid al-Adha, when livestock consumption surges across Gulf economies.

Shipping routes disrupted, costs surge

Beyond aviation bottlenecks, maritime routes have also been thrown into disarray. The effective closure and heightened risk around the Strait of Hormuz—through which a significant share of global energy and trade flows—has forced rerouting of shipments. At the same time, the Red Sea has become increasingly volatile due to security threats, including fears of attacks by regional militias.

The combined effect has sharply inflated logistics costs. Exporters say shipping rates for livestock from East Africa to destinations such as Oman are set to more than double—from about $1,000 per tonne to as high as $2,200 in the coming weeks.

Supply chain shock ripples through region

At ports such as Mombasa, consignments of meat are stranded, unable to reach key Gulf markets, the Financial Times reported . The supply chain disruption is cascading through the ecosystem—from exporters and abattoirs to livestock markets and pastoral communities.

With exports stalled, meat is increasingly being diverted into domestic markets, triggering a price slump. For farmers and herders already operating on thin margins, the sudden drop in prices is squeezing incomes during what is usually the most lucrative season.

The World Food Programme has warned that the fallout could be severe, particularly in drought-hit regions of the Horn of Africa where livestock sales are a primary source of income. Even modest declines in export volumes or prices can have outsized economic consequences for rural households.

Drought compounds economic pain

The disruption comes at a time when parts of East Africa are grappling with prolonged dry spells. In such conditions, livestock acts as both a store of wealth and a critical coping mechanism. However, unlike crops, animals cannot be held indefinitely without incurring costs.

Prolonged trade disruption raises the risk of distress sales, which could permanently erode herd sizes and undermine long-term resilience in pastoral economies.

Early indications suggest that exports from Somalia—a major supplier to Saudi Arabia—are continuing but at lower volumes, as rising insurance, logistics and risk premiums eat into margins across the value chain.

Recovery hinges on geopolitical stability

Exporters caution that even if routes reopen quickly, the damage may linger. Rebuilding supply chains, restoring buyer confidence and stabilising freight costs could take months.

With transport costs expected to remain elevated and geopolitical tensions unresolved, the recovery of this vital trade corridor—and the livelihoods it supports—will depend squarely on how quickly stability returns to West Asia.