India wholesale inflation jumps to 8.3% in April, far above forecasts on fuel shock

India’s wholesale inflation surged to 8.3 per cent year-on-year in April, sharply higher than market expectations and marking the fastest pace in the current series, as a spike in fuel and crude oil prices drove a broad-based rise in producer costs, government data showed on Thursday.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation had stood at 3.88 per cent in March, marking a steep acceleration that also came in significantly above economists’ expectations of 4.4 per cent.

The latest reading marks the highest level since October 2022, when wholesale inflation had risen 8.67 per cent, underscoring renewed price pressures in India’s production economy.

Fuel shock drives inflation surge

The sharp rise was led by the fuel and power category, which jumped to 24.71 per cent in April compared with 1.05 per cent in March, reflecting elevated global crude oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainty.

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Within the segment, crude petroleum and natural gas inflation surged 67.18 per cent, while petrol and diesel prices rose 32.4 per cent and 25.19 per cent, respectively.

The wholesale inflation spike also comes against the backdrop of domestic fuel price adjustments earlier in the year, when Indian fuel retailers raised jet fuel and commercial LPG prices following a global energy surge triggered by the West Asia crisis.

Aviation turbine fuel prices were raised by 8.6 per cent, while commercial LPG rates rose 10.4 per cent in April, reflecting higher global benchmarks and supply constraints linked to shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz.

India, which imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil and about 60 per cent of its LPG requirement, remains highly exposed to such external shocks. While domestic LPG cylinder prices for households were kept unchanged, industrial and commercial segments absorbed part of the global price increase.

The inflation shock has coincided with renewed pressure on the Indian rupee, which has recently hit successive record lows against the US dollar amid elevated oil prices and persistent foreign portfolio outflows.

Food inflation edges higher, but remains contained

Food inflation rose modestly to 2.31 per cent in April from 1.85 per cent in March, suggesting limited pressure in the agricultural basket compared with energy-driven inflation.

Vegetable prices, however, showed mixed movement, increasing 0.53 per cent year-on-year in April compared with a 1.45 per cent rise in the previous month, indicating volatility in perishables but no sharp upward trend.

Manufacturing costs rise as input pressures spread

Beyond fuel and food, inflationary pressures widened across manufacturing inputs, signalling a deeper cost-push dynamic in the economy.

Prices of manufactured products rose 4.62 per cent in April, up from 3.39 per cent in March, driven by increases in chemicals, textiles and basic metals.

Basic metals inflation rose to 7 per cent, while chemicals and chemical products increased 5.09 per cent, highlighting rising input costs for core industrial sectors including construction, engineering and capital goods.