Record rice stocks, five-year-high wheat reserves strengthen India's food security

India's rice stocks held in government warehouses surged to a record high at the start of June, while wheat reserves climbed to their highest level in five years, strengthening the country's food security position and giving policymakers greater room to manage exports and contain inflation.

Official data released on Tuesday showed state rice reserves, including unmilled paddy, stood at 68.43 million metric tonnes as of June 1, up 15 per cent from a year earlier and more than five times the government's buffer stock requirement of 13.5 million tonnes for July 1.

Wheat stocks rose to 53.41 million tonnes, comfortably above the government's target of 27.6 million tonnes and the highest level since 2021, reflecting stronger-than-expected procurement from farmers during the current marketing season.

The build-up in grain inventories comes as India seeks to balance domestic food security concerns with its role as a major supplier to global markets. Record rice stocks are expected to support exports even as forecasters warn that an El Nino weather pattern could lead to below-normal rainfall and affect crop production in the coming months.

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India accounts for roughly 40 per cent of global rice exports and removed its last remaining restrictions on overseas rice shipments in March 2025 after domestic supplies improved.

The sharp increase in wheat inventories also marks a significant turnaround from recent years, when the government grappled with tighter supplies and elevated prices. Strong procurement has replenished stocks and improved the government's ability to intervene in the market if prices rise.

Market participants said the combination of record rice reserves and a robust recovery in wheat stocks has left India with abundant supplies of both staple grains for the first time in several years.

The increase in inventories follows a bumper 2025/26 crop year. India's rice production reached a record 154.02 million tonnes, while wheat output climbed to an all-time high of 120.66 million tonnes. Favourable monsoon rainfall encouraged farmers to expand acreage and helped lift yields across key growing regions.

The healthy stock position is likely to provide the government with greater flexibility in managing food inflation, maintaining welfare programmes and responding to any supply disruptions caused by adverse weather conditions.

With warehouses holding grain stocks far above mandated buffer levels, policymakers now have a stronger cushion against potential production risks while retaining the option to increase open-market sales or support exports if domestic supplies remain comfortable.