IMF keeps India on top of global growth table — but clouds gather ahead

India is set to retain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting the economy to grow 7 per cent in calendar year 2026. The latest forecast underscores the country's resilience at a time when much of the world is struggling with weak demand, geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.

However, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook Update also points to a more challenging road ahead. It expects India's growth to moderate to 6.4 per cent in 2027, suggesting that while the country's domestic economy remains strong, it cannot remain completely insulated from an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Even after the projected slowdown, India is expected to comfortably outpace every other major economy. China is forecast to grow 4.6 per cent this year before slowing to 4.1 per cent next year, while the United States is expected to expand 2.3 per cent in 2026 and 2.2 per cent in 2027. The global economy, meanwhile, is projected to grow just 3 per cent this year before improving modestly to 3.4 per cent next year.

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Domestic demand remains India's biggest strength

Unlike export-led economies such as China, India's growth story continues to be driven largely by domestic consumption.

The IMF said India's outlook is supported by "strong momentum in private consumption and services activity", highlighting the resilience of household spending despite global uncertainty.

The services sector — including information technology, financial services, aviation, hospitality and digital businesses — has continued to power economic activity, while public investment in infrastructure has provided an additional growth cushion.

This domestic demand has helped India weather external shocks better than many other large economies that depend heavily on global trade.

Why the slowdown matters

A decline from 7 per cent growth to 6.4 per cent may appear modest, but economists say the implications go beyond the headline number.

For an economy of India's size, slower growth means lower output, fewer investment opportunities and potentially weaker job creation.

India needs sustained high growth to generate enough employment for millions of young people entering the labour market every year.

While the services sector is expected to continue hiring, manufacturing and labour-intensive industries could face greater pressure if global demand remains subdued.

The challenge for policymakers will be to ensure that slower economic expansion does not translate into weaker employment growth.

Global risks are becoming harder to ignore

The IMF's projections reflect growing concerns over the external environment.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, volatile energy prices, trade disruptions and uncertainty over global monetary policy continue to cloud the outlook for economies across the world.

For India, one of the biggest vulnerabilities remains crude oil.

As the world's third-largest oil importer, India remains exposed to sustained increases in energy prices. Higher crude prices can widen the current account deficit, weaken the rupee and push up inflation by raising transportation and manufacturing costs.

If inflation remains elevated, it could also limit the Reserve Bank of India's ability to lower interest rates, keeping borrowing costs high for households and businesses.

Markets focus on the bigger picture

Despite the IMF's slightly weaker growth outlook for next year, investors appeared more encouraged by India's relative economic strength.

Indian equity benchmarks ended Thursday's trading session firmly in positive territory.

The BSE Sensex climbed 552.02 points, or 0.72 per cent, to close at 77,055.62, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 160.25 points, or 0.67 per cent, to settle at 24,042.30.

The gains suggest investors remain confident that India continues to offer one of the strongest long-term growth stories among major economies, even if the pace moderates slightly.

Can India hold on to its growth crown?

The IMF's latest projections reinforce India's position as the world's fastest-growing major economy. Even with growth easing to 6.4 per cent next year, India would remain comfortably ahead of China, the United States and most advanced economies.

But retaining that leadership will require more than simply growing faster than everyone else.

The bigger challenge will be sustaining growth while creating enough jobs, attracting private investment, strengthening manufacturing competitiveness and keeping inflation under control.

With global uncertainty likely to persist, India's economic performance will increasingly depend on the strength of its domestic demand rather than favourable international conditions.

For now, the country continues to stand apart in an otherwise slowing global economy. But as external risks mount, protecting that growth advantage may prove more difficult than achieving it.

With inputs from agencies.