Emirates rises to third in India’s international traffic amid West Asia disruptions

A total of 1,91,00,571 passengers flew in and out of India between January and March this year, according to data released by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). Up to 93.32 lakh passengers flew into India, while 97.67 lakh flew out. The numbers are just 1.25 per cent lower than the same quarter last year, indicating that the full impact of the West Asia war was not yet visible in March, the first full month of the conflict.

A fragile peace agreement continues to hold, even as oil prices hover near all-time highs and mediation has not resulted in a lasting peace agreement just yet. However, March did see a significant drop in international traffic to and from India compared to previous months.

IndiGo has been the largest carrier of international passengers from India over the last few years, followed by Air India and Air India Express. They were followed by Emirates, Etihad, Singapore Airlines, Qatar Airways, Air Arabia, and Lufthansa, with the 10th spot taken by either Malaysia Airlines or Saudia, depending on the season.

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Surprise carrier

As flight cancellations began due to the security situation, some West Asian carriers (like Gulf Air and Qatar Airways) were grounded for a longer duration, while Dubai-based Emirates tried to get back on its feet as quickly as possible. Emirates climbed from fourth to third position, overtaking Air India Express, which saw a steep reduction in capacity since over 50 per cent of its international network is deployed to the Gulf region. At a time when the situation in the UAE and surrounding areas was volatile, Emirates—often colloquially referred to as the “National Airline of India”—gained a spot.

The airline carried 28 per cent fewer passengers in March than its average for January and February, DGCA data shows. While Emirates climbed the ranks, its neighbour, Etihad, was less aggressive; it maintained its position on the list but carried nearly half the number of passengers in March than it did the previous month. This gave room for Singapore Airlines to jump from sixth to fourth position, as passengers destined for North America began looking for options in the opposite direction to fly out. Lufthansa and Saudia also gained positions, with both carrying a similar number of passengers as before. Saudi Arabia also bore the brunt of attacks from Iran but resumed operations much earlier than other carriers in the region, thanks to its geographical location.

Indian carriers impacted the most

Surprising as it may be, IndiGo carried 50 per cent fewer international passengers in March than its average over the previous few months, while Air India Express saw an erosion of 70 per cent of its international passengers in the same period compared to preceding months. This was largely because a massive portion of the international network of these Indian carriers is deployed on Gulf routes. In comparison, Air India, which has more limited exposure to the GCC region, saw an erosion of only 15 per cent of its international passengers in March. All Indian carriers cancelled flights for longer durations across multiple cities in the GCC in March, with most continuing the trend in April and extending it into May.

SpiceJet, which ranked 11th in international traffic from India in January and 15th in February, slipped to 32nd position in March. The airline had only two international destinations when the West Asia war started—Dubai and Sharjah; both were impacted. Subsequently, the airline started operations to alternative points like Fujairah on a temporary basis. Akasa Air, which held the 22nd spot, slipped to 26th position in March.

A handful of foreign carriers saw a significant impact, felt most severely by Qatar Airways, which plummeted to 24th position from seventh and saw a 72% erosion in traffic. Muscat-based Oman Air and Bahrain-based Gulf Air were the other two carriers heavily impacted in the immediate aftermath. Kuwait Airways did not operate at all in March, suffering a total erosion of the market share it had recently gained following an increase in seats under a revised Bilateral Air Services Agreement.

Tail note

International traffic dropped by close to 30 per cent in March as an immediate aftermath of the West Asia war and the subsequent suspension of networks to destinations in that region. Flights are still not back to normal, with Indian carriers taking a significant cut as point-to-point traffic remains impacted by a mix of demand and security considerations. Looking ahead to June, Air India has scaled down its network significantly. Overall, Indian carriers, which previously looked certain to reach a 50 per cent share of international traffic, will now struggle to reach that milestone for some time to follow.