What will it take for the world to agree on a policy for peace, expansion in space?

So what’s causing the policy impasse?

The panel of experts at ORF that spoke about Women in Space. Image: Ploughshares/Twitter[/caption]This dynamic is slowly changing with the increasing role being played by the private space industry, but there’s still a long way to go, according to Parros. “The problem is keeping track of who’s doing what in space at all times, and that is really difficult. There are a few people doing really path-breaking in this arena with technologies like biometric systems for satellites, but a lot of work still remains before these technologies can actualise,” he argues.Apart from the emergence of the private space industry, another key element precipitating conflict in outer space, says Parros, is the increasing ‘weaponization’ of space. “We must take care to differentiate weaponization of space from the militarization of space. Outer space has been militarized from the very start of the space race. But it is only now that it is increasingly being weaponized,” he says.

India’s ASAT demonstration – in context

While the anti-satellite test demonstration by India in March this year is symptomatic of weaponization, many experts argue that the general discourse is also moving away from peaceful uses of space technology. Speaking at the ORF dialogue, the Chairman of ORF, Sunjoy Joshi said, “The discussion has actually been regressing for years. Military and security concerns have actually taken primacy over other concerns in recent years.”Reacting to the ASAT, Parros adds, “A kinetic kill demonstration such as ASAT is a statement more than anything. The last such test was by China in 2007, but that doesn’t mean the capability doesn’t exist outside these countries. Russia has probably had this capability for a long time but never really established it. If they (Russia) do conduct an ASAT in the near future, it might be because of India’s ASAT.”If there’s a consensus among experts about one thing, it is that the world has now moved ahead with much more scarier technologies such as electronic and cyber warfare using space-based capabilities and this is what makes the need for a global space policy so immediate.

What a Space Crisis Could Mean

The term 'space crisis' sounds quite foreboding. But what's scarier is the absence of a framework to deal with one, says Raji. "We see a lot of countries continuously ‘testing the waters’ with matters of space security, whether it is China, US, or even India (with its ASAT). The problem is that we still can’t clearly define what an armed attack in space really is or what actions can be construed as one. Does it need to cause loss of life or property? What about electronic or cyber attacks? And ultimately, what actions can legitimise a counter-attack These are some of the burning questions that need to be defined and answered before we can advance in space,” she says. The problem, however, is that the answers are unlikely to be arrived at anytime soon.“At this point, only a crisis can set things back in motion.”So how bad would it be? “Things could get really ugly,” says Daniel Parros. “For example, if the US were to lose GPS capability for even a minute, that is a catastrophe of unparalleled scale! But on the other hand, a little bit of tension can actually be fruitful.”“The bottom line”, says Daniel, “is that we don’t need countries to be at peace with each other. What we need now is the right amount of tension, which can spur countries to take action and also act as checks and balances.”The author is a science writer and student at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences.

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