Ronaldo or Messi, who has the better chance to win FIFA World Cup? Opta Supercomputer predicts

Will Lionel Messi be able to win back-to-back World Cups or will Cristiano Ronaldo finally break his title drought at the biggest stage? These are among the biggest questions that fans want answered at the 2026 FIFA World Cup that begins June 11 and goes on till June 19 across the United States, Mexico and Canada.

Messi's Argentina enter the tournament as the defending champions and the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner will have another chance to further cement his legacy as arguably the greatest ever to play the game. Only two teams have been able to successfully defend their World Cup title in history and the last of these two came back over six decades ago.

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On the other hand, Ronaldo and Portugal are hoping to finally light up the World Cup stage after multiple underwhelming attempts. Like Messi, this is Ronaldo's last World Cup and the five-time Ballon d'Or will not want to end his career without even coming close to winning it.

But who among the two legends has the upper-hand at the upcoming World Cup? Let us see what Opta's Supercomputer says.

Messi or Ronaldo, who will win World Cup?

According to Opta’s Supercomputer, which ran 10,000 simulations of the tournament, Messi's Argentina currently have a 10.4% chance of winning the title and successfully defending their crown.

Portugal, led by Ronaldo, have been given a 7.0% probability of lifting the Cup, which is significantly lesser than Argentina. Portugal know that if they want to make this number bigger, there talisman needs to have a tournament like Messi had in 2022.

So, as per the dats, Messi enters the tournament with a noticeably higher chance than his on-field rival. Most experts will also agree with the statement as Argentina have a better squad on paper than Portugal.

While Argentina have a decent 10% chance of winning the tournament, it is still far lesser than their other rivals. Opta's Supercomputer has predicted Spain as the most likely winner of the competition, giving the La Roja 16.1% chance. France and England are the next two in the list with 13% and 11.2% chance of winning. Argentina are fourth in the list and the last one given a double-digit chance to win. Portugal are fifth, closely followed by Brazil.