Countering Kejriwal: Why it makes sense for Modi to contest Varanasi

From all accounts, it seems certain that Narendra Modi will be contesting from two seats, one in Gujarat and the other in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh.While The Times of India assures us that Modi contesting from Varanasi is ‘almost final’, its sister publication The Economic Times goes further and informs us that Modi will contest from Ahmedabad East and Varanasi. The Indian Express was less certain and said that the announcement of the UP list was being delayed by the decision on Varanasi, where BJP veteran Murli Manohar Joshi has also staked a claim.Yesterday (7 March), Modi confidante and the BJP’s UP strategist Amit Shah taunted Arvind Kejriwal to contest Modi in Gujarat. Since Shah is a smart cookie,  chances are that he could be trying to psyche Kejriwal into contesting from Gujarat, while he plans his moves in Varanasi.[caption id="attachment_1424731" align="alignleft" width="380"] AFP[/caption]From all this chatter, I would conclude that Modi from Varanasi is probably a done deal – the only question being how to mollify Murli Manohar Joshi. He may be offered the Kanpur seat instead.BJP strategists believe that Modi contesting from Varanasi would, on balance, be a good idea for the party as it would pep up the party in Eastern UP, which is crucial, and I believe they may be right.(I have changed my views on this. In a recent article, I had strongly argued against Varanasi since Kejriwal may use this opportunity to make a tamasha in UP, and also polarise voters along communal lines. But I realise a serious flaw in my argument, since Kejriwal is going to do this anyway. The rest of the political spectrum will silently encourage him to do this. And the media is going to follow him like Mary’s lamb for the sheer novelty value of Kejriwal’s candidature. So one should not only expect Modi to fight from two seats, but also not rule out Kejriwal doing likewise. That is, fight from two seats. It is difficult, for example, to visualise a Manish Sisodia being followed around by media if he is launched against Modi.)So what are the upsides to Modi’s candidature from Varanasi – the downsides having already been established?There are three potential upsides.One, this election is about Modi. So for Modi to play safe is not an option. It is best for him to become even more visible by fighting two seats. Also, since UP is key to the BJP achieving 200-plus seats on its own, Modi’s candidature cannot but help.Two, there is the minority vote to think about. The biggest dilemma for UPA’s Muslims is how to consolidate their vote against Modi. Right now the chances are Muslims will vote tactically for BSP and SP in various constituencies. If Congress and BSP ally, Muslims will be more confused trying to figure out how not to split their vote. Let the Aam Aadmi Party into the fray, and the decision becomes even tougher. A confused Muslim voting pattern helps the BJP.Three, apart from Modi, this election is also about governance and corruption. Despite some questions about Modi’s alleged pandering to crony capitalists, governance and corruption are also Modi’s strong suits. There is, of course, the prospect of Kejriwal making a spectacle of himself in Varanasi. Will this help or hinder Modi? I think it helps. If one candidate appears serious and the other is all bluster and allegations, ultimately it cannot but help Modi’s claims. Nobody ultimately wants anarchy. Anarchy is the opposite of governance.Yesterday’s Kejriwal performance at the India Today Conclave gave us some pointers. Most of his speech revolved around how Gujarat is no model for any state, and how Modi had robbed everybody - from farmers to ordinary folk - to favour Adanis and Ambanis. And that Modi’s rule was a combination of him inculcating fear and poor opposition from the Congress.But is this obsessive trolling of Modi going to help Kejriwal or Modi? While Kejriwal got a lot of claps for what seemed a sincere enough speech, he also got some flak, the most memorable one being the question by former Delhi police commissioner Neeraj Kumar, who read out a passage that suggested that Kejriwal was a hit-and-run leader. (See the video here).While Kumar’s effort seemed a bit too deliberate, the facts he stated stand on their own. The impression I got from listening to Kejriwal yesterday was that he was too sincere to be true - and that he frequently altered his position. He is good at throwing mud, but his ability to govern will always be in question till he proves he can govern. In Delhi, his 49-day tenure failed to provide this assurance.