Before Assembly polls in Maharashtra, an assertive BJP, a cautious Sena

It is for the first time ever that the BJP in Maharashtra has found enough muscle for its long-time partner Shiv Sena to notice it. Hitherto, in their three-decade old relationship, the upper hand has been the Sena’s. A grumble from the late Bal Thackeray would see the late Pramod Mahajan rushing to Mumbai to soothe him.[caption id="attachment_1041293" align="alignleft" width="380"] Sena president Uddhav Thackeray. PTI[/caption]The BJP’s confidence within the alliance in Maharashtra has spiked, especially of its own worth, and the leaders are naturally happy. They at least see the Sena as a co-equal in the partnership now. By sweeping Maharashtra on the Narendra Modi wave, the Sena too seems to have acknowledged that in a state of the Marathi manoos, others count too.The realisation is that Marathi-ness, brazen Hindutva, and rabid exclusionist policies would not find traction any more, at least as a main plank. This stems from one single statistic: BJP’s vote share in the state has climbed to 27.57 per cent from 18.2. The Sena vote share grew by about 4 per cent to 20.8.The Sena’s lower growth to BJP’s massive surge this time underlines the fact that the former gained because of the latter, not because Uddhav Thackeray was leading it. The fact that the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena votes too went to the alliance implies the strong pull Modi has had on the electorate.Though happy at the bottomline, Sena has sensed the message and is active in ensuring, for instance, that the Gujarati community is not upset by an anti-Gujarati editorial in the party mouthpiece, Saamna, one that Uddhav was quick to disown. Then, when its own party-run civic body pulled off from buses advertisements asserting the Gujaratis' eminence in Mumbai, a scare ran through it.The MNS had taken offence to the promotional advertising of a new Gujarati newspaper being launched, because it, in its perspective, diminished the role of the Marathi manoos in the development of Mumbai. But it the BEST is run by the Sena and Uddhav was quick to say the Thackerays would “go door to door” to thank Gujarati voters for their support.Never has the Sena been so humble, or charitably put, so cautious. And it is now that the BJP stands to, and may even plan to, gain by asserting its position within the alliance, which despite some ups and downs, has stood the test of time. The run up to the elections to the Maharashtra Assembly, due in October, would probably display this streak of confidence in the BJP.One does not expect The BJP to blow the bugle right now. But the matter has already been gingerly raised by its state chief Devendra Fadnavis. A “detailed discussion” on seat-sharing is in the offing, but “ground realities” would be a factor. “Maximising” BJP’s wins would be a consideration.But again, delicately, they would not “stretch” the matter on numbers.Actually, by tradition, the two parties needn’t quarrel on the seat-sharing for the elections to the 288-member Assembly. There is a template for it. Conventionally, the Shiv Sena, being the local big brother, had 171 seats for it to contest, and the BJP got the rest, 117. In the parliamentary election, it has almost invariably been 26 for the BJP and 22 for the Sena.Sena wanted to be in the driver’s seat to run Maharashtra government as and when it gets to do so, and its interest in Delhi being nominal, it likes to have only a modest share in the instruments of power.Unlike the NCP, for instance, Sena’s ambitions with regard to Delhi are limited, which is just a presence. It moderates it to an appropriate scale.This time, with Modi the plank and BJP intending to bring Amit Shah to work his magic here as he did in Uttar Pradesh, both parties are bound to have a new view of themselves. The BJP now sees its utility to the alliance differently. The party that wins more seats as a coalition gets to have its chief minister and unless the BJP improves its own strike rate, it has no chance to have a chief minister in Mhaarashtra.The 171-117 ratio tilts the scales always in favour of the Sena. Except when it ruled Maharashtra for five years from 1995, one which had higher number got to have its MLA as the Assembly’s Leader of Opposition. When Chhagan Bhujbal split the party, dipping Sena's strength, BJP had jockeyed and secured the post using the numbers template.This October, the Modi tide can lift all the boats and a higher strike rate may not be limited to the BJP since the alliance has surplus votes in some 235 Assembly segments, when the magic number for forming the state government is 145. How the BJP manoeuvres to get the upper hand would be the most interesting pre-poll political story in Maharashtra.