Trump, Xi and Putin: The new great power game has begun

Today China is courted by both the United States and Russia, reflecting an emerging new kind of relationship among the big powers of the world. The back-to-back May 2026 summits of Chinese President Xi Jinping, first with President Donald Trump of the United States and days later with President Vladimir Putin of Russia in the Chinese capital, were cautiously and anxiously watched by the international community.

Many analysts penned numerous articles examining who won and who lost in the Trump-Xi meeting. Others compared and contrasted Xi’s meetings with Trump and Putin and indicated how China’s relations with Russia turned out to be more cooperative, strategic and friendly than those with the United States.

The two summit meetings in Beijing do not provide adequate inputs to decipher a trend in big power relationships. President Trump visited Beijing against the backdrop of falling popularity at home due to the negative outcomes of his tariff gambles and waging an unnecessary war against Iran that faced a stalemate despite a shaky ceasefire. His highest tariff rates against China and abusive rhetoric had already angered the Chinese government, which weaponised rare earth exports in retaliation.

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Xi had understood after meeting Trump in South Korea in October last year that only a demonstration of power would induce the US President to make compromises. And China’s power was clearly on display when Trump visited China. In the way Trump keeps shifting his policies from time to time, apparently to confuse the opponent or partner, Xi signed no agreements on any issue and only expressed willingness to buy agricultural products from the US and Boeing aircraft. The numbers and figures were all notional and no deals were finalised. The large number of CEOs of Corporate America who accompanied Trump secured no deals.

The Xi-Trump summit, nonetheless, symbolised that President Trump failed to Make America Great Again and rather had to justify Xi’s observations about a declining America by saying that it was a reference to the Biden presidency. In actuality, it was Biden who gave more headaches to Xi than Trump by doubling down on the first Trump Administration’s economic cold war against China, by repeatedly saying that the US would defend Taiwan if attacked, and by strengthening the Quad and promoting an Indo-Pacific Economic Forum.

Trump, on the other hand, climbed down to reduce tariffs on China after facing rare earth export controls initiated by Xi; halted the decision on selling weapons to Taiwan; remained tight-lipped when Xi openly waived the Taiwan red line; and returned home almost empty-handed, while ruminating on his way back that the US would not fight a war more than nine thousand miles away in the Taiwan Strait.

Chinese officials and analysts had frequently expressed the view that the United States was a declining superpower and, through the optics and statements during Trump’s trip, sought to project the US as a less influential global power. Trump’s failure to end the Ukraine war and eliminate Iran’s nuclear programme, despite tall claims about them, played into the Chinese narrative. Trump had already faced the embarrassment of refusal by the NATO allies to participate in the Iran war. And Xi now appeared to have offended Trump by making no offer to help end the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz.

By holding a summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin days after Trump left Beijing, concluding numerous agreements, signing a joint statement unlike during Trump’s visit, and endorsing the need to promote a multipolar world order, China sought to create an image of a world order marked by the United States as a declining superpower, China as the ascendant superpower, and Russia’s resurgence as a superpower.

The United States has been consistently considered a superpower since the end of the Second World War. Russia’s predecessor, the USSR, was a superpower until its collapse in December 1991. But Russia, the central constituent unit of the former USSR, has remained a military superpower, although its political influence in the world is limited and its economy is small and war-torn. China has been considered an emerging superpower only relatively recently due to its military modernisation, enviable economic achievements and fast-growing technological prowess.

Although Russia is economically weaker than China and the United States, it has military parity with the United States and is stronger than China in absolute military power, with a larger nuclear and missile arsenal. China is not richer than the United States, nor is it more powerful in military capacity as of now. While the US has the largest military and the wealthiest economy, it cannot face the combined strength of Russia and China, which are working towards a “limitless” partnership.

The Sino-Russian strategic partnership is growing stronger at a time when the rift in the trans-Atlantic alliance appears to be widening. America’s Asian allies too are seeking strategic autonomy. The triangular equations among the US, Russia and China in the emerging geopolitics will determine the level of peace and degree of stability in the world order in the coming years.

The United States under the Trump Administration is seeking a sort of détente with Russia and China. Decades earlier, the Nixon Administration sought détente with the USSR and China against the backdrop of the Vietnam quagmire faced by the United States. Both the USSR and China were backing the anti-American forces in Vietnam, despite the Sino-Soviet split. Nixon sought to get out of Vietnam and build ties with China to weaken Soviet influence.

Now President Trump is facing a potential quagmire in Iran. He has stopped backing Ukraine in the Russo-Ukraine war, but cannot befriend Russia for obvious reasons. By continuing the war in Ukraine, Moscow has clearly undermined US power and influence. Trump’s advisers perhaps thought that a new détente with China is essential to deal with Vladimir Putin in Europe and Mojtaba Khamenei of Iran in the Persian Gulf.

But China of the 1970s was poor and weak. China of the 21st century is a powerful rival of the United States. Trump will not succeed in teaming up with China to restrain Russia. Putin will not team up with him to constrain China. The nature of Russia-China relations will determine the state of world affairs in the coming years. It is expected that Moscow and Beijing will bilaterally seek closer economic cooperation with the US. At the same time, they will try to oppose US unilateralism. The current geopolitical distance between the US and its allies, however, will be short-lived if Russia and China, in their respective regions, persist with their current or future assertive policies.

(The writer is founder chairperson, Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies, and Editor, India Quarterly. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)