The sad tale of Pakistan: In trying to be too clever by half, hoisted by its own petard as Iran war escalates

One feels bad for Shehbaz Sharif. Saddled with responsibility sans power, he tries his best. Yet life (read Asim Munir) has dealt the Pakistani prime minister such a rotten hand that even his best efforts fall short.

Take the current crisis. With the US and Israel assassinating Iran’s Supreme Leader and top generals in a joint operation, Pakistan is caught between the devil and the deep sea. There is a touch of black comedy in the way Sharif is trying to execute the impossible trapeze act.

On one hand Pakistan needs to show total compliance and obedience to the United States, or Daddy Trump will shut off the IMF tap, Pakistan will default and its struggling economy will go up in flames. Pakistani stock market has already crashed, and trading had to be stopped for a while.

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On the other hand, a restive, radicalized population that considers America as the ‘Great Satan’, is incensed at the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei at the hands of American and Israeli forces and has decided to take law in their own hands.

The crisis has demonstrated that Pakistan’s foreign policy, long incumbent on rent-seeking from competing great powers, has reached its logical conclusion. Islamabad is no longer able to insulate its population from the consequences of its strategic imperatives.

In the last few days, Pakistan has been rocked by violence with demonstrators protesting the assassination of Khamenei. The death toll has already reached 35. In Sunni-dominated Pakistan, around 15% are Shiites, followers of the Shia sect of Islam. Pakistan is home to the third-largest Shia community in the world after Iran and Iraq. Pakistan is also the only country, as a 2015 Pew Research survey indicated, where Iran is viewed favourably by the majority.

Little wonder that soon after the news spread of attacks against Iran and death of Khamenei, violent protesters in Karachi tried to raid the US embassy and at least 10 were killed when the US marines opened fire at the rioters.

Imagine Pakistan’s moth-eaten sovereignty where foreign security officers at a consulate kill citizens of the host country at will. Nearly 25 more were injured in Karachi alone. The fire soon spread to other parts. Bloomberg reports that in Pakistan’s northern regions of Gilgit and Skardu, at least 14 protesters and one soldier was killed. There were similar demonstrations near the consulate in Lahore and near the US embassy in Islamabad. The situation became so grim that Pakistan had to call in its troops and impose a three-day curfew in the Gilgit-Baltistan region.

For Pakistan, a nation adept at navigating the treacherous waters of competing alliances, the current crisis at home represents the failure of its ‘strategic hedging’. It is now caught between its existential dependency on the US for sustenance and an Islamist population erupting in sectarian fury. By attempting to play too sophisticated a game, Pakistan has effectively been hoisted by its own petard.

Notably, Sharif did not initially condemn the attack on Iran by the US and Israel that took out Khamenei – a marked abstention given the way Pakistan fashions itself as the ‘protector’ of the Islamic world. When he finally did, while extending support to Saudi Arabia -- with whom Pakistan has signed a ‘NATO-like’ pact of “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement” -- Sharif singled out Israel as the aggressor, completely avoiding any mention of the US.

Note Sharif’s balancing act carefully.

“I spoke with my dear brother HRH Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this evening to express Pakistan’s strong condemnation of the dangerous regional escalation following the Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent attacks in the Gulf region.

Pakistan stands in full solidarity with Saudi Arabia and our brotherly Gulf countries in this perilous time. We remain ready to play a constructive role for peace and pray that the blessings of Ramadan bring calm and stability to our region.”

Not only did he refuse to take America’s name as one of the aggressors in the war on Iran, but the Pakistani prime minister also refrained from blaming Iran directly for attacking the Saudis in retaliation. This trapeze act convinced none and made Pakistan the international laughing stock, not to mention increasing the anger within its own population.

When the rage at home reached boiling point, Sharif had to condole the death of Khamenei and “join the people of Iran in their hour of grief and sorrow”. On March 1, a full day after the incident.

Sharif still remained silent on the role played by the US in the assassination, and didn’t mention, for obvious reasons, that Pakistan has been more than willing to quietly aid the US in bombing Iran.

Pakistan’s strategic overreach, driven largely by its desire to outmanoeuvre India, has instead resulted in a strategic squeeze. Its decade-old effort of nurturing and aiding the Taliban for ‘strategic depth’ against India in Afghanistan now lies in ruins, with the Taliban carrying out a major offensive in the latest conflict between the two sides in which major Pakistani military bases, including the command and control centre at Rawalpindi’s Nur Khan Air Base, reportedly been hit. There have been several casualties on both sides and competing claims of damage.

The Taliban claims to have seized two military bases and several border posts in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan sectors, and downed one fighter jet. According to the ‘mutual defence pact’, Saudi Arabia should’ve come to Pakistan’s aid since ‘any aggression against one nation is considered an attack on both,’ but Riyadh has offered little beyond platitudes.

Between the spillover effects of Iran war, that may see influx of refugees if hostilities continue, internal unrest and instability in the Afghanistan border, Sharif’s hands are full. He’s now munching on Pakistan’s pretzel foreign policy.

(Views expressed are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)