Nepal polls: Can Balen Shah vanquish the old guard?

As Nepal heads into its most gripping election in years, the Himalayan nation’s old political heavyweights are struggling not just for votes, but also for legitimacy. Nearly 19 million people, including 800,000 first-time voters, will participate in the 5 March election, which comes months after deadly youth-led protests toppled the coalition government led by CPN-UML chairman K.P. Sharma Oli and dissolved parliament.

Nepal has since been governed by an interim government led by former chief justice and staunch anti-corruption campaigner Sushila Karki, which promised to hold fresh elections within six months. Nepal’s political churn matters to its neighbour India, which shares an open border with Nepal.

Balen Shah, a rapper-turned-Kathmandu mayor, has become a symbol of disruption. The alliance between the millennial mayor of Kathmandu, Balen Shah, known as Balen, and chairperson of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Rabi Lamichhane, ahead of the March elections is poised to challenge the older parties in Nepal, which have been in power for over three decades.

More from Opinion

Balen emerged as a trusted leader during Nepal’s Gen Z protests that plunged the country into a whirlwind of violence that left 77 people dead and many injured. Youth protesters asked him to lead the country after the former prime minister stepped down following the protests. Balen won the mayoral election as an independent candidate in 2022 with a majority of votes. Lamichhane, who formed the RSP in 2022, is currently out on bail after being released on 18 December. He was accused of alleged cooperative fraud and organised crime.

Balen has a real shot at vanquishing these heavyweights, and if he does, it could breathe new life into Nepal’s stalled democracy. His appeal to the young, fed up with the old guard’s failures, might just tip the scales towards real change—something that could foster stronger, more reliable ties with neighbours like India, countering outside influences that have muddied Nepal’s path.

Nepal’s politics is exhausted. The Himalayan country has struggled with political instability for decades. Since 2008, Nepal has seen 14 different governments, not one of which has completed a full five-year term. A majority of young people are grappling with high unemployment. Youth unemployment is around 20 per cent, forcing thousands of young people to toil abroad as migrants, their earnings amounting to a third of Nepal’s GDP. Youth migration, unemployment, and fragile service delivery have hollowed out faith in traditional parties.

Nepal’s politics has been a mess for decades. The same faces—Oli, Sher Bahadur Deuba, Pushpa Kamal Dahal—keep cycling through power, promising the moon but delivering little.

The heavyweights thrive on patronage networks, doling out favours to loyalists while the average Nepali struggles with inflation and power outages. Parties like UML and Congress are riddled with infighting, making coherent policy almost impossible.

Into this mess stepped Balen Shah, winning the mayoral race in Kathmandu with a majority. He spoke directly, cut through red tape, and projected the image of a man unafraid to pick fights. His bulldozer politics, literal and metaphorical, gave frustrated citizens a feeling of momentum.

The Balen-Rabi alliance suggests a different path. One grounded in city-level problem-solving, anti-corruption credibility, and a push to make energy work for growth. If this experiment survives the coming tests, including the uncertainty before the elections, it could reset expectations of governance in Nepal and inspire Asians who follow reform stories.

Embrace leaders like Balen who bring energy and pragmatism. As mayor, Balen Shah successfully demolished commercial and residential buildings that were built without proper permits. He widened pavements in Kathmandu’s major areas, which is an important step for the public’s convenience. Balen’s administration managed garbage collection efficiently and implemented several measures to improve cleanliness, including daily road cleaning and maintenance. His RSP alliance focuses on jobs, education reform, and anti-corruption, which offers hope for younger generations.

Balen is contesting the parliamentary elections from Jhapa-5 against the heavyweight K.P. Sharma Oli. If he wins, it sends a message—experience matters, but so does innovation.

Nepal needs to invest in skills training to cut unemployment. Think vocational programmes tied to India’s booming sectors—IT and manufacturing. A Balen-led government could push for that, creating win-wins across the border.

Balen’s critics say he is untested nationally, a showman more than a statesman. Oli has decades of experience navigating Nepal’s tricky geopolitics. Some also worry that rushing change may lead to instability.

There is also concern that Balen’s populism might overlook the complex alliances needed to govern. Nepal’s parliament is fragmented; no party wins outright, so deal-making with veterans is inevitable. Dismissing heavyweights entirely risks gridlock.

The world would be keeping a close watch on how people vote in Nepal. This will not only decide the fate of the Himalayan nation, but also impact the neighbourhood.

(The writer is a columnist. His articles have appeared in various publications like The Independent, The Globe and Mail, South China Morning Post, The Straits Times, etc. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)