Nepal and India should seize the Balen Shah moment to reset ties

This famous quote with a brilliant metaphorical expression from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar (Act 4, Scene 3), spoken by Brutus, means that there are critical, fleeting moments in life when opportunity is at its peak. Seizing these moments (“taken at the flood”) leads to fortune, while hesitating leads to failure or mediocrity:

“There is a tide in the affairs of men,

Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;

Omitted, all the voyage of their life

Is bound in shallows and in miseries.”

In the context of the recent Nepal election results, this aptly reflects a new transition of power that is untested but undeterred, with a traction of unprecedented mass support seen in recent years for any political grouping in Nepal. Politics is a fundamental element for humankind, and the new paradigm shifts in Nepal are significant not only because they constitute a wholesale rejection of the established political parties and leadership, but also because they show an emphatic determination to give the people of Nepal democratic governance free of nepotism and corruption, while guaranteeing opportunities for future economic growth and employment.

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The path ahead for achieving this is obviously not going to be very easy for Nepal’s new dispensation (in all probability headed by Kathmandu’s former mayor Balen Shah, popularly known as Balen). For the moment, however, the world needs to applaud the country — especially its interim Prime Minister Sushila Karki, the Army, and election authorities — for achieving something that appeared impossible a few months ago after the violent agitation that unseated the KP Oli government: peaceful polls enabling comprehensive political change.

For too long the world — the people of Nepal even more so — has been judgemental in criticising Nepal for its unending transition from a feudal order to a meaningful democracy that protects not only freedom of expression but also offers good governance. Nepal deserves every encouragement possible as the new order settles down, irrespective of the roadblocks and challenges it will undoubtedly face. Successive generations in Nepal have agitated with incremental success to reach the present stage; the country possesses the resilience and ability to find its own solutions as it moves forward. All that it needs is encouragement and support that are inclusive, not patronising or re-creating nepotism or corruption in any new forms.

There are also ample warning signs that Nepal is impatient with any external attempt (real or perceived) to influence its decisions. Restructuring of the India-Nepal relationship has long been overdue. For far too long it has been trapped in the shadows of the legacy of British India days. This is a unique opportunity for India and Nepal to fashion a forward-looking relationship based on today’s realities, popular aspirations, and the immense potential for expanding cooperation. It will be necessary for policymakers on both sides to discard old mindsets, address long-standing irritants with fresh approaches, and prioritise people-centric policies that can be delivered to keep pace with people’s expectations and needs.

India also needs to look at the recent developments in Nepal as part of a wider regional phenomenon, since happenings in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and elsewhere also fall into the same pattern — agitations led by frustrated youth demanding faster development and better governance. Pakistan and China will continue to be concerns for the foreseeable future but need not be a brake on a clear-cut regional strategy for rapid growth that will make up for the lost decades. And, of course, the US-led neo-geostrategic aggression has to be well reviewed for a well-thought-out, sane strategy as a balanced counter-mechanism. This too can be a new frontier of collaboration as the world heads towards a new reset; therefore, it would not be an exaggeration to foresee the need for resetting India-Nepal relations.

With someone like Swarnim Wagle expected to helm the finance ministry, it is expected that an economist of his stature has a vision for Nepal’s progressive and sustainable growth by giving economic reforms their long-denied due. He is comparatively an old-timer in his party, the Rastriya Swatantrata Party (RSP), which was founded in 2022 by Rabi Lamichhane. Since ushering Nepal towards healthy economic reform processes will be a real uphill task for a new aspirational Nepal imagined by Gen Z, he will be the person to watch and follow next to Balen Shah. RSP has gained a lot from Gen Z protests and Balen’s entry as the PM face; however, it would be crucial to ensure stability while keeping intra-party power tussles in check. To maintain an optimistic view of the emerging scenario, Rabi Lamichhane will have to ensure this while keeping both old and new guards in good humour.

For now, the election results offer a dark cloud over the clamour for the revival of Constitutional Monarchy and Hindu country status. These two causes have been pursued by royalists, civil societies, think tanks, as well as sections from different political groups. Building Nepal’s new political economy will certainly require giving a fair share of space to forgotten or subdued cultural identities — a miss that became too costly for the politicians who ruled but did not necessarily govern Nepal for a long period of time. Time will tell how the new dispensation looks at these matters.

In these changed times, India and Nepal have much to collaborate on for a meaningful repurposing of their bilateral ties. India’s commitment to a stable, peaceful and prosperous Nepal shall not waver. Long live India-Nepal relations.

(Atul K Thakur is a policy professional, columnist and author [most recently co-authored ‘Kathmandu Chronicle: Reclaiming India-Nepal Relations’; Penguin Random House India]. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)