The great game of maritime chokepoints holds the world economy hostage

The Strait of Hormuz is a three-thousand-year-old maritime route which connected Mesopotamia with the Indus Valley Civilisation. Almost all of Asia’s Gulf oil passes through it today.

The current conflict is only the most recent in a long history of maritime wars, over five of the world’s most important waterways, including Hormuz. Three-quarters of world trade is still transported through maritime routes, making their strategic significance enormous. Every great empire has flourished and fallen with control of these routes. Closure of any kind attacks the jugular vein of world commerce and its oil lifeline in particular. After the Hormuz conflict, the geopolitical tug of war happening at the other four critical choke points warrants attention.

Malacca Strait

Bordering Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, Malacca carries most of China and Japan’s maritime trade and oil. A quarter of world trade passes through the strait. It is even more geopolitically sensitive than Hormuz. It was controlled successively over 450 years by the Portuguese, Dutch, British and Japanese as the gateway to Asia. Malacca is China’s Achilles' heel. Two thirds of maritime trade and three quarters of oil imports still pass through Malacca, despite the decade-old Belt and Road initiative, which was planned to reduce dependency on what is called the “Malacca dilemma”. India’s Great Nicobar Island is 150 km from the Malacca Strait.

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Last month, Indonesia and the US signed a major military treaty, which allows US access to Indonesian airspace and oversight of Malacca, which will be of deep concern to China. Indonesia now plans to levy a Hormuz-like tax, which Singapore opposes. Any security or tax threat may trigger a major international crisis more devastating than Hormuz.

Bab Al Mandeb

The name means “Gate of Tears” in Arabic. Ships from the Suez pass through this waterway between Yemen and Djibouti to exit from the Red Sea into the Arabian Sea. The Bab is a chokepoint on the southern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, like Hormuz is on the northern coast. The Sunni government of Yemen doesn’t recognise Iran and is aligned with the US and its Gulf allies, while rebel Shia Houthis are supported by Iran.

China and Russia are believed to be providing military and satellite assistance to the Houthis in return for the safe passage of their vessels. They deflected European calls for action in the UN Security Council. The Houthis and aligned pirates in neighbouring Somali waters are an attractive low-cost investment, with high nuisance value for the US, and act as a distraction from Iran. The risk has already resulted in half of container traffic avoiding the Bab since 2023, also affecting the Suez.

Last month, the Houthis threatened to close the Bab to US and Israeli vessels in retaliation for attacks on Lebanon. On the opposite bank of the Bab, Djibouti has the unusual distinction of hosting military bases of the US, China, France, and Japan, amongst others. Interestingly, Iran has not bombed the US base in Djibouti as it has in the Gulf countries.

Suez Canal

At 193 kms, the Suez Canal is the shortest route connecting North America with Asia. Egypt oversees the daily passage of $10 billion of world trade, nationalising the Suez in 1956 after a bitter battle with European powers to assert sovereignty. When it was abruptly closed for 8 years during the Arab-Israeli war, the global impact was one of the worst in maritime history. Billions of dollars of world trade were affected, and inflation hit double digits, while crews of stranded ships lived on board for years.

This year, Egypt got $1.3 billion in military aid from the US. China is developing the Suez Canal Economic Zone as a global industrial and logistics hub as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Egypt walks a diplomatic tightrope, managing both superpowers' expectations. Spillover of unrest in neighbouring Sudan and Gaza, or any threat to the cold peace with Israel and its Arab neighbours, is likely to attract superpower involvement, with global consequences.

Panama Canal

The US built and managed the Panama Canal, which connects the Atlantic Ocean with the Pacific Ocean, for 85 years before transferring control to Panama in 1999. Most traffic is to and from US ports. Panama de-recognised Taiwan and recognised China a decade ago and is a hub for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese companies managed both ends till recently, and it is the second largest user of the canal.

A concerned US expressed a desire to take over the canal last year, with Panama firmly refusing to relinquish control.

As China’s influence, with tacit support from a weakened Russia, grows in the US sphere of dominance, the world economy and peace are at the mercy of superpower jostling at these critical chokepoints.

(The author is a retired corporate leader. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)