Balen Shah’s premiership: A test of governance and diplomatic balancing for Nepal

Nepal’s March 5 election was nothing short of a political earthquake. Balendra Shah, known popularly as Balen, and his Rastriya Swatantra party's rare thumping victory will have significant geopolitical implications in the coming days. Nepal stands at a geopolitical crossroads where India, China and the US each have their own interests. The challenge for the new government under Balen's premiership will be balancing relations with three giants without leaning heavily on any.

The rapper-turned-politician looks poised to become Nepal’s next prime minister after his Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) secured a commanding majority in the general election. Founded just four years ago, the party won 182 of the 275 parliamentary seats—the largest mandate for any party in more than six decades. While Nepali voters had long expressed frustration with traditional parties, few anticipated such a decisive landslide.

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Balen has secured the biggest landslide victory over former prime minister KP Sharma Oli in his own constituency. Shah received 68,348 votes, far surpassing Oli, who garnered 18,734 votes in Jhapa-5, according to the vote count released by the Election Commission of Nepal.

The election result reflects deep frustration with decades of political instability, corruption, underdevelopment, nepotism and youth unemployment. After years of Nepal’s politics being dominated by a triumvirate of parties, Nepali voters have rung the bell for change. Nepali voters aren’t just switching parties. They are replacing an old guard tainted by allegations of corruption and political impunity.

Since the abolition of the monarchy in 2008, the country has seen 14 governments, none completing a full five-year term. Youth unemployment hovers around 20 per cent, driving many young Nepalese abroad in search of work. Last year, 77 people were killed during last September's demonstrations, where youth protested against the ban on social media sites as well as bigger issues of corruption and nepotism. The protests plunged the country into a whirlwind of violence that left 76 people dead and several injured.

The challenge for Shah and the RSP now lies in translating electoral enthusiasm into effective governance. Shah’s tenure as Kathmandu mayor demonstrated a pragmatic approach to urban management—removing illegal constructions, improving public infrastructure, and streamlining waste collection. Scaling these initiatives nationally, alongside targeted investment in education and vocational training, will be critical to keeping young talent at home and restoring faith in government institutions.

Foreign policy will be equally consequential. Nepal sits between two giant powers, China and India, each with strategic interests. The RSP government must navigate these relationships with care, maintaining Nepal’s sovereignty while fostering constructive bilateral relations. China will seek engagement on projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, while India is Nepal's largest trading partner, investor and development partner. The two countries share a long and open border and are connected historically too. A stable Nepal under a single party is better for border management between two countries and the continuity and enhancement of key projects. India should now engage with new leadership to ensure stability and strengthen bilateral relations between two neighbours.

At the same time, Washington’s interest in Nepal goes beyond bilateral ties. The United States has sought to strengthen democratic institutions and diversify Nepal’s development partnerships, including through initiatives such as the Millennium Challenge Corporation compact on infrastructure — a $500 million programme that aims to boost road and power connectivity. For Nepal, diplomacy and practical partnerships—not ideological alignment—will determine the country’s regional position.

Nepal must assert its sovereignty while crafting relations with India and China that are pragmatic and mutually beneficial. At the same time, deeper engagement with partners like the United States could broaden Nepal’s economic opportunities and institutional resilience.

Shah represents a new, nationalistic generation that emphasises equality in foreign relations and the need for pragmatic, interest-based engagement. For India, this means recognising Nepal’s agency and working toward sustainable collaboration rather than transactional influence.

Nepal’s domestic politics cannot be dissociated from border disputes and nationalist narratives. Perennial issues such as the Kalapani‑Limpiyadhura border have flared up periodically, testing and straining Kathmandu’s diplomacy with New Delhi. If the Shah government leans too heavily into nationalist posturing without following through on economic cooperation and partnership, it risks isolating Nepal at a time when investment and regional support are most needed.

Yet, despite the euphoria surrounding the election, the RSP remains largely untested at the national level. Governing Nepal—a country with a complex federal structure, entrenched bureaucratic inertia, and ongoing economic pressures. The party’s ability to deliver on anti-corruption pledges, economic revival, and social services will define its real success. Nepali voters have signalled their desire for change and stability; failure to meet these expectations will likely see the party’s mandate diminish, just as it did for the old guard.

For now, Balen Shah’s victory offers a window of opportunity—a chance for a new political approach in Nepal that combines governance reform with balanced regional diplomacy. What Nepal under the new government needs is disciplined governance at home and mature diplomacy abroad, and that is a far steeper mountain to climb than winning elections.

(The writer is a columnist. His articles have appeared in various publications like The Independent, The Globe and Mail, South China Morning Post, The Straits Times, etc. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)