No great threat: Why Al Qaeda's 'Indian wing' may prove to be a mirage

Amid a country-wide alert in India over an al Qaeda threat, a top US counter-terrorism expert has said there is no evidence of the terror outfit's presence in the country."The idea that Ayman al-Zawahiri is going to open a branch of al Qaeda in India is just crazy. Yes, there are some jihadi elements in India, but there's no evidence that al Qaeda has a presence in the country," Peter Bergen, known for his insight into operations of al Qaeda in South Asia, told CNN's Fareed Zakaria in an interview on Sunday.[caption id="attachment_1702263" align="alignleft" width="380"] Al Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri. AFP[/caption]"It's an attempt by Zawahiri to have people like us discuss him, because he's been out of the limelight for so long, it's all been about ISIS in Iraq and Syria and al Qaeda is very conscious that they're yesterday's story," Bergen says."And if you look at the tape that they showed of Zawahiri, it's so boring. It's him talking in a monologue that goes on for more than half an hour."And then you look at what ISIS is doing on video... ISIS is a much more appealing media strategy, apart from the fact that also they are being much more successful than al-Qaeda has ever been in its history in terms of getting territory, money, fighters and actually establishing a large foothold in the Middle East," he said.Al Qaeda's decision to open an India wing to 'save' Muslims triggered a national alert with intelligence officials beefing up security across the country keeping in mind the upcoming season of festivities.The video threat even provoked India's Air Force chief Arup Raha to issue a statement saying "There is a threat perception from such agencies but the nation is prepared for it."However, there is great skepticism about Zawahiri's reach in the Indian subcontinent.Many view his video threat as being an attempt to stay relevant in the fact of the Islamic State's rising global profile. Still others have argued that much of India's Muslim population is moderate and won't easily give in to extremist pressure. In fact, an earlier video released by the now head of the Qaeda's India operations Maulana Asim Umar, the terror outfit squarely asks why Indian Muslims aren't taking to the battle field like those from other countries.An explainer in the Economist offers a number of reasons why Indian Muslims are less likely to support extremist views, including the influence of Sufism in the Asian region, the state control over madrassas in the country and the community's significant role as a minority in India's electoral process, as also India's secular constitution.However, the same article cautions that while for now Indian Muslims are unlikely to support such views:

Rising literacy, an ever-more urban population and growing wealth and information may yet encourage more extremist factions to emerge. Large migration flows to the Gulf might yet help to bring back more conservative Islamic beliefs and funds for Wahhabi mosques and madrassas. Similarly, if Hindu nationalists in power were to grow heavy-handed, a backlash and a rise in extremism are easy to imagine.

Also speaking to CNN, Husain Haqqani, the former Pakistan Ambassador to US, said the move appeared to be more of a strategic attempt to re-establish ties with the Pakistan ISI.  "I think that Zawahiri's attempt to talk about India is essentially to try and get the hard line elements among Pakistani jihadis and even within the Pakistani intelligence service to think about al-Qaeda as a potential ally. That's his play.""I don't think he will get much traction. But basically what he's trying to do is to appeal to the anti-Indian sentiment that is present in Pakistan on any given day and hoping to get recruits for his cause," he said.With PTI inputs