Will UK’s controversial Rwanda asylum policy cost Rishi Sunak his job?

UK prime minister Rishi Sunak is facing trouble over his government’s Rwanda asylum policy.The danger isn’t from the Opposition or even the courts – but from some within his own Conservative Party.But what’s the Rwanda asylum policy? And what does this mean for Sunak?Let’s take a closer look:What’s the Rwanda asylum policy?The UK government has vowed to keep unauthorised asylum seekers out.Its Rwanda policy was the centrepiece of its plan to stop illegal immigrants attempting to reach England from France in small boats.More than 29,000 people have done so in 2023 compared to 46,000 in 2022.

The plan would have seen tens of thousands of asylum seekers sent to Rwanda.

Britain in 2022 under then prime minister Boris Johnson struck a deal under which migrants who cross the Channel would be sent to Rwanda, where their asylum claims would be processed and, if successful, they would stay.As per NDTV, the scheme was to be trialled for a five-year period.There was no limit to the number of people that could be sent to Rwanda.The plan also allowed Rwanda to ask the UK to take in some refugees.Rwanda, which is already home to thousands of refugees from African countries, agreed to the deal after Britain paid it 140 million pounds (approx. Rs 1,468 crore) upfront.The UK government claimed the deportations will discourage others from making the risky sea crossing and break the business model of people-smuggling gangs.However, no one has yet been sent to Rwanda as the plan faced multiple legal challenges.As per NDTV, the first such deportation flight was stayed by the European Court of Human Rights.Just last month the UK Supreme Court ruled the plan was illegal because Rwanda isn’t a safe country for refugees, whom judges said face “a real risk of ill-treatment.”The UK government has refused to drop the plan.This week Britain and Rwanda signed a treaty pledging to strengthen protections for migrants. Sunak’s government says the treaty allows it to pass a law declaring Rwanda a safe destination.Sunak’s new billSunak has now proposed a new bill entitled the “Safety of Rwanda Bill” to tackle illegal immigration.But on Wednesday, Robert Jenrick quit as immigration minister claiming that the government's draft emergency legislation to get the scheme up and running and did not go far enough.[caption id="attachment_13397272" align="alignnone" width="640"] Protest against the British Government's plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda in London. Image courtesy: REUTERS/Henry Nicholls[/caption]Jenrick said “stronger protections” for the bill were required, as per CNBC.He also derided the bill as a ‘triumph of hope over experience’, as per The Hindu.On Thursday, Sunak appealed for Conservative lawmakers to back him.“What this vote is about, is about confidence in parliament to demonstrate that it gets the British people’s frustration,” Sunak was quoted as saying by CNBC.

“There is no way to stop people coming here unless you have a deterrent,” Sunak added.

As per CNBC, Sunak has said that the new bill places a high bar for entering the UK and that only those who face ‘real and imminent’ threats would be exempted.“There is no way to stop people coming here unless you have a deterrent,” Sunak added.Sunak claimed the new bill designed to override a UK Supreme Court ruling will end “the merry-go-round of legal challenges.”“Parliament is sovereign,” Sunak was quoted ass saying by The Hindu. “It should be able to make decisions that cannot be undone in the courts,”Sunak said he would “do what is necessary” to revive a blocked deal to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda, even if it means ignoring UK human rights laws.“We will get flights off the ground,” Sunak said.Sunak said the bill “blocks every single reason that has ever been used to prevent flights to Rwanda taking off.”He said that while asylum-seekers would have limited ways to fight deportation, “we have set the bar so high that it will be vanishingly rare for anyone to meet it.”The UK in April paid Rwanda an additional 100 million pounds (Rs 1048 crore) on top of the money it previously sent as the bill for its contested plan to relocate asylum seekers to the East African country continues to rise.On top of the 240 million pounds (Rs 2,517 crore) Britain has sent to Rwanda, London is also set to pay the East African country an additional 50 million pounds (Rs 524 crore) next year, according to a letter published by the British interior ministry on Thursday.What does this mean for Sunak?Sunak’s main political threat comes from members of his party who think his plan isn’t harsh enough.The bill has its first vote scheduled in the House of Commons on Tuesday. It may face Opposition from centrist Conservative lawmakers who oppose Britain breaching its human rights obligations.But the bigger danger for Sunak comes from the hard-line right-wing who think the bill is too mild and want the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights. Almost every European country, apart from Russia and Belarus, is bound by the convention and its court.[caption id="attachment_13403322" align="alignnone" width="640"] Former home secretary Suella Braverman, a leading right-winger whom Sunak fired last month, is seen as likely to run for party leader if the Conservatives lose power in an election. AP[/caption]But Sunak has said the bill went as far as the government could go.“If we were to oust the courts entirely, we would collapse the entire scheme,” he wrote in a letter to Jenrick.As per The Hindu, Sunak claimed the difference between him and those within his party opposing him was an “inch”.“But that inch, by the way, is the difference between the Rwandans participating in this scheme and not,” he added.Rwandan foreign minister Vincent Biruta confirmed that his country would scrap the deal unless Britain stuck to international law.“It has always been important to both Rwanda and the U.K. that our rule of law partnership meets the highest standards of international law, and it places obligations on both the UK and Rwanda to act lawfully,” he said in a statement.Sunak has made “stopping the boats” one of his key pledges ahead of a national election that is due next year. He hopes that showing progress will help his Conservatives close a big polling gap with the Opposition Labour Party.

Rivals are circling in case he fails.

Former home secretary Suella Braverman, a leading right-winger whom Sunak fired last month, is seen as likely to run for party leader if the Conservatives lose power in an election.Braverman told BBC that Sunak’s bill ‘will fail’ and cost him the next polls.The party leadership contest could come even sooner if Conservative lawmakers think ditching Sunak will improve their chances. Under party rules, Sunak will face a no-confidence vote if 53 lawmakers — 15 per cent of the Conservative total — call for one.Braverman criticised the Rwanda bill and said the law must go further, including a ban on legal challenges to deportation and incarceration of asylum-seekers in military-style barracks.“We have to totally exclude international law -– the Refugee Convention, other broader avenues of legal challenge,” she said.As per The Hindu, Braverman has warned that the  Conservative Party faces “electoral oblivion in a matter of months” if the bill does not pass.Braverman did not answer directly when asked if she supported Sunak as prime minister.“I want the prime minister to succeed in stopping the boats,” she said.Many European countries and the US are struggling with how best to cope with migrants seeking refuge from war, violence, oppression and a warming planet that has brought devastating drought and floods.While Britain’s Rwanda plan is one of the more novel responses, critics say it’s both unethical and unworkable to send migrants — many of them fleeing conflict-scarred countries such as Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq — to a nation 6,400 kilometers away with no chance of ever settling in the UK.With inputs from agencies