US intel warns Iran can shut Strait of Hormuz 'at will' after war, says report

US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran now has the capability to effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz whenever it chooses, giving Tehran a powerful new tool to influence the global economy, according to a CNN report.

The conclusion comes despite a framework agreement expected to be formally signed on Friday that aims to reopen the strategic waterway and pave the way for renewed nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

US officials believe Iran's actions during the recent conflict demonstrated its ability to disrupt maritime traffic through one of the world's most important energy corridors.

According to the report, US intelligence officials now believe Iran has emerged from the conflict with greater confidence in its ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic lever.

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Concerns over future disruptions

The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant portion of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. According to the report, intelligence officials fear that Iran may be more willing to use this capability in future crises after successfully restricting access to the waterway during the recent conflict.

US officials also believe Iran has learned that targeted strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure can serve as an effective asymmetric tool against its adversaries. The assessments suggest that Tehran views such actions as a way to exert pressure while avoiding direct large-scale military confrontation.

Although the United States and Iran have reached a framework agreement to reopen the strait, uncertainty surrounding the deal could continue to affect maritime traffic for weeks or even months.

Iran retains significant military capabilities

According to the assessments, Iran still possesses a substantial stockpile of missiles, drones, missile launchers and fast attack boats that could be used to disrupt shipping or lay naval mines in the region.

US officials are also monitoring reports that Iran has begun rebuilding parts of its military-industrial base faster than expected, including the resumption of drone production.

There have been discussions about involving allied nations in securing the waterway once normal traffic resumes, though no clear mechanism has yet been announced.

Fear of a wider economic threat

US intelligence agencies are also examining the possibility that Iran could use its regional allies, particularly the Houthis in Yemen, to target another critical maritime chokepoint, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean.

Officials fear that simultaneous disruptions in both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb could have severe consequences for global trade and energy markets.