Norway Chess Scenarios: How R Praggnanandhaa can win the elusive title in final round

No Indian has ever won the prestigious Norway Chess tournament, but that can change in the 2026 edition as Grandmaster R Praggnanandhaa is inches away from an elusive trophy. The 20-year-old Praggnanandhaa from Chennai is currently second in the table, half a point behind leader Wesley So of the USA, with one more round to go.

World champion D Gukesh and Magnus Carlsen are out of the title race and are at the bottom of the standings. In Round 9, Carlsen lost to Wesley So in Armageddon, while Gukesh suffered a defeat to Praggnanandhaa on the Classical board.

World No 1 Carlsen and Gukesh face each other in the last round to avoid the bottom, but the most intriguing battle will be fought at the top. Rather than settling for draws, the winners of the tie at Norway Chess 2026 are being decided by an Armageddon tie-breaker.

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How Praggnanandhaa can win Norway Chess 2026

Winning the Classical match gives you three points, while winning through Armageddon offers 1.5 points.

This way, the equation is simple for Praggnanandhaa. If Wesley So fails to win his Classical match vs Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa will clinch the Norway Chess 2026 title by winning his last round game against Vincent Keymar.

Even if Wesley beats Firouzja in Armageddon, he will only move to 17 points, while Praggnanandhaa will have 18 points by beating Keymer in the Classical game.

But if Wesley wins his Classical game, Praggnanandhaa will have no chance to win the tournament, as he will never be able to reach 18.5 points.

What if two players end on top?

What happens if both Wesley So and Praggnanandhaa draw their Classical games?

In such a scenario, the title race will be decided in the Armageddon tie-break. If Wesley So wins, then he will clinch the trophy regardless of what Praggnanandhaa does. But if he loses and ends on 16.5 points, then Praggnanandhaa can equal him by winning his Armageddon tie-break. This way, both Wesley and Praggnanandhaa will have 16.5 points each.

What happens if two players share first place? There will be a play-off to decide the winner.

This playoff consists of a two-game blitz match with a time control of 3 min. + 2 sec. increment per move.

If this match ends in a tie, a further match will be played.

If this match ends in a tie, there will be an Armageddon game where White has 10 minutes and Black, with draw odds, has 7 minutes, both with an increment of 1 second per move, starting from move 41.

If more than two players share first place, there will be a double round-robin tournament with a time control of 3 min. + 2 sec. increment per move.

In case of a tie between players in the double round-robin tournament, the classical games results will be used to resolve the tie according to the following:

1. Direct Encounter,

2. Sonneborn-Berger,

3. Koya System,

4. Extended Koya System (the number of points achieved against all participants who have scored at least 55% of the maximum possible tournament score).