Sonia Gandhi's new-found aggression may not do much for Congress: Here's why

What’s behind Sonia Gandhi’s new-found aggression? Suddenly, she is on the streets leading opposition parties in a march to oppose the land acquisition law; her party is busy disrupting parliament to stall two government bills (coal and minerals) that the rest of the opposition has more or less agreed to; and she is now attacking the government day in and day out by directly naming Modi as the person to be opposed.[caption id="attachment_2164445" align="alignleft" width="380" class=" "] Congress chairperson Sonia Gandhi. PTI[/caption]There are many reasons for the return of Sonia Gandhi to active street politics, something which was not in evidence even during UPA-2, when the Congress’ fortunes were sinking by the day. The party needed her feisty leadership then, but she was MIA - missing in action. Now, when she swings to action, her son in MIA. So it may all end in zilch.Now for the reasons behind her recent aggro.First, the new Sonia Gandhi senses opportunity. With the BJP on the backfoot after its Delhi defeat, and with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) busy with its in-fighting, the opposition space is wide open. The Sangh has been making the minorities feel insecure with its ill-advised remarks, and the Congress can now return to its old calling card of being the only major national “secular” party.Second, however, window of opportunity will be narrow, because AAP is not going to disappear, despite the internal power struggle. Sonia Gandhi knows that more than BJP, it is AAP which will damage it the most as a centre-left “secular” alternative to the BJP. Once Arvind Kejriwal sends the dissenters packing or manages to sideline or silence them, AAP will be back in the game. And its game is about taking over where the Congress left off. Sonia is acting now, despite earlier giving the impression of being reasonable in parliament, because three months down the line, this opportunity could disappear.Third, as an earlier Firstpost article points out, Rahul Gandhi is a no-show. The problem is that the Congress’ Great White Hope is unlikely to return from his hibernation with any new ideas for the party. His enlightenment, wherever or whenever he finds it, will not be what Sonia or the Congress party want. The party wants street aggression and muscle flexing, something to convince the cadres that a return power is just some distance away, but Rahul is a disaster on this front. Sonia is stepping into the breach in order to ensure he still has a party worth leading when he returns from his stint under the Bodhi tree. In the ultimate analysis, she wants to leave a positive political inheritance for her son – like any mother would do, even if the son is unworthy of it.Fourth, there is little doubt that unlike Vajpayee, Sonia has a personal animus to Narendra Modi, who has often made fun of her Italian origins. There is also little doubt that the Congress witch-hunt against Modi when he was Gujarat Chief Minister was largely done at her behest. Nothing enrages her more than the fact that Modi led BJP to a big win in May 2014. She now senses an opportunity to get even. This is why she no longer pretends that the fight is for an issue, but against the “Modi government.” As this Economic Times report suggests, her attacks are now personal.Fifth, the BJP is gradually dismantling the Congress edifice of keeping the centre super-strong by boosting federalism. The Fourteenth Finance Commission has already ensured that more than 62 percent of total tax resources will now be with the states, including 42 percent of devolved central tax revenues. If this process is carried forward during the entire tenure of the BJP, the Congress will be reduced to a regional party as economic power will shift to the states. So even if the Congress somehow comes back to power in 2019, it cannot turn the clock back. Its ability to retain power through the distribution of power and patronage to states will be severely truncated.Sixth, Sonia senses that the anti-BJP unity formulated on the basis of opposition to the land acquisition act will wither away as states sense greater opportunity in other bills that give them more resources. The coal mine auction, enabled by ordinance, puts enormous resources in the hands of states like West Bengal, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. This is why the opposition, including Trinamool Congress (no friend of Modi), is happy to pass the bill even in the Rajya Sabha with minimal amendments. Sonia wants to prevent this from happening or else current allies will turn opportunistic allies of the BJP in passing more bills in future.However, it is unlikely that all this aggro is going to fetch Sonia Gandhi too many dividends. This is because old-style politics is not going to yield electoral payoffs like before, and also because the BJP – bruised and battered in Delhi and over its land ordinace – is unlikely to make the same mistakes again and again. The BJP won in 2014 not by playing old-style politics, but by offered a new agenda of development and growth for all. Sonia cannot win by going back the the old paradigm. Those days are over.Another reality: in all the states which go to the polls between now and 2017, the Congress has little space to play its games. In West Bengal, the Congress can survive only if Mamata Banerjee allows them in as junior partner to keep the BJP out. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad will carve up the state between them, leaving little to Congress. In Uttar Pradesh in 2017, the Congress will be squeezed between BJP, SP, and BSP – unless it is willing to play second fiddle to either BSP or SP, who will want the lion’s share of seats in case of a pre-poll alliance. In Assam, no matter what the Congress does, the chances are it will lose power in 2016.In Mumbai, where the municipal polls are due in 2017, the Congress’ best hope is a BJP-Sena split; but the BJP could end up tying with NCP. Ties between BJP and NCP are getting warmer even as the Sena gets more aggressive with its coalition partner. However, if AAP gets its Delhi act right, it could make gains in Mumbai’s municipal polls.Sonia may find that her new aggression is too little, too late. The Congress party is a lost cause, especially since its heir-apparent is AWOL.