Sangh vs Modi: Why both cannot do without each other

These are difficult times for Narendra Modi and the Sangh Parivar. Their problem is not so much the Congress or even rebel Keshubhai Patel as their messed up equations with each other. If there’s a threat to Modi’s repeat mandate this time, it comes from one singular source, the Sangh. He has clashed with them too many times over the last ten years and created more powerful enemies than he can possibly handle."Let him contest from any other party and let’s see if he can win," said a VHP activist who wanted to stay anonymous, adding "who would bring the voters to the booths?"It’s an unspoken threat looming over Modi as he prepares for the electoral battle for his third term as chief minister. He has flourished on the sturdy Hindutva platform built assiduously over the last 20 years and more by the RSS and its affiliates. If the latter withdraw the organisational lifeline to him, which is crucial to winning elections, his chances would suffer.[caption id="attachment_522437" align="alignleft" width="380"] Narendra Modi. AP[/caption]"Development does not matter much. It won’t win elections for Modi. The younger lot which supports him most cannot manage mobilisation of voters. They are inexperienced and they lack the culture of hard work the Sangh drills into you.. Ultimately, it is the Sangh’s support network which will see him through," said the activist, while not denying the possibility of a last minute patch-up between the chief minister and the RSS and its sister organisations.Modi is aware of the possible trouble from the Sangh. That explains his efforts to be back in the good books of the RSS and his recent trip to Nagpur. Also, the Sadbhavana Yatra was meant to address this particular discomfort. He seems to be trying hard to placate Vishwa Hindu Parishad chief Ashok Singhal, though Pravin Togadia remains a problem.In the last elections, results of around 40 seats were decided under the margin of 5,000 votes. He cannot simply afford to face the elections after alienating his core base or at least a part of it.The core base is under threat."Earlier, leaders or supporters of the BJP unhappy with Modi had nowhere to go. They obviously won’t vote for the Congress, and Gujarat does not have a third party which is ideologically similar. Keshubhai’s Gujarat Parivartan Party has provided a platform to all disgruntled elements. You can expect a shift of some leaders from the BJP to the GPP after the distribution of tickets," said Achyut Yagnik, social thinker and political observer.If Keshubhai manages to cause even a minor damage in the Surashtra region – where the BJP has 58 seats – it will spoil the game for Modi.The Chief Minister has reasons to be worried."He has divided the Sangh Parivar, divided the BJP. The old guard in both has drifted away from him. The BJP under Narendra Modi is virtually an independent entity with no linkages to the Sangh. He will at the best get the support of a section of the Sangh, particularly the younger lot, he has encouraged and promoted," says senior journalist RK Mishra. That support is not enough in a crisis situation.The RSS top brass is clearly divided over him, particularly after the Sanjay Joshi episode, and his tendency to develop the personality cult, which it abhors as a matter of principle.Many in the organization feel the recent controversy involving BJP national president Nitin Gadkari is the handiwork of Modi and they cannot afford to back a leader who has the potential to be another Atal Behari Vajpayee.The division was visible when two of the RSS' publications, Organiser, and 'Panchajanya' came out with contrasting views on him. While the first one claimed Modi to the most popular leader in the country, the second one, a Hindi weekly, cautioned him about his style of functioning and organisational capabilities.However, it’s obvious that the RSS won’t like its showcase government in Gujarat to fall over ego issues involving its leaders. It will cause serious damage to the prospects of the party coming to power at the centre in 2014 or whenever the Lok Sabha elections are held next. Moreover, despite his manipulative ways, Modi is still the best bet for an important national role among the present set of leaders.So is the problem as big as it is being made out to be? Probably not. The new generation of Sangh followers is cut off from the old guard and it identifies itself with Modi. Keshubhai is an aging patriarch with not much to offer in terms of leadership and hope to them. He cannot even promise them a victory. Moreover, they won’t relish the thought of losing power after enjoying it for two decades. Pragmatic considerations from them will work to the advantage of Modi.Despite the differences with the Sangh Parivar, Modi is safe.