It's not just Narendra Modi: Rahul Gandhi has a 'minority problem' too

With the Prime Minister unwittingly placing the burden of Congress' poll fortunes on Rahul Gandhi, the Congress scion might have to look beyond manicured speeches to brighten his party's prospects in 2014. And when he does look out of his khidkee, he'll probably be faced with a bigger problem than he had apprehended originally. Though Muslim votes are being considered Narendra Modi's Achilles heel, the Congress' traditional of politics of secularism may not work for it even in its strongholds. According to an article on The Economic Times, widespread disgruntlement against the party, especially among influential Muslim clerics, might just swing votes towards a third alternative, if not BJP.ET reports that Maulana Syed Kalbe Jawad, an influential cleric who leads Friday prayers in Lucknow, has openly declared that he will lead a stir against the Congress since the party has failed to resolve issues around encroachments into Wakf land and dissent around Wakf laws. As was reported previously, Sonia Gandhi had already switched the panic button and tried to intervene in the case of an encroachment into Wakf properties in Jor Bagh and Mehrauli in Delhi. However, if Jawad's announcement is anything to go by, it is evident that the Muslim populace is growing increasingly disillusioned with the Congress.[caption id="attachment_1094253" align="alignleft" width="380"] Muslim voters are getting increasingly disillusioned with the Congress: PTI image[/caption]While the broad assurance of policies with no religious bias is mildly attractive, a great share of the Muslim vote bank, as has been noted by political analysts, is strongly influenced by singular leaders from the community. Therefore, the imams and several most such highly placed clerics put up a wall between votes and the voters, which remains fairly impervious to the national parties without the community heads' approval. A paper by R Upadhyay on the South Asia Analysis Group website notes why the Muslim votes remain prone to abundant manipulation by a section of leaders in the community. Upadhyay notes:

Since the establishment of democratic and secular polity in India, the Muslim population was bracketed in a vote bank group initially by the congress party and subsequently by all the political parties in the country.  None of them however, offered any remedial solution to resolve the educational and economic miseries of the Muslim masses and allowed their communal conflict with the Hindus growing day by day.

With the most vulnerable and impressionable sections of the community therefore turning to its religious leaders for direction in the absence of a holistic development plan for them from the national parties, the high leadership has over the years gained infinite power of vote manipulation. Proof of the fact lies in measures taken by some political parties to exclusively appease the imams and other such Muslim leaders in order to gain easier access to Muslim votes. Recently the Calcutta High Court, much to the dismay of the Trinamool Congress-led West Bengal government, struck down a provision by which imams in the state could claim a 'monthly allowance' from the government.However, as was reported by Firstpost previously, the idea that a greater percentage of Muslims vote in India en bloc, is being put to test repeatedly by opinions emerging from within the community. On the eve of VHP's much hyped Ayodhya Yatra, several Muslims in the district told reporters that the SP government's clampdown on the religious rally doesn't flatter them anymore - the community has learnt to look beyond gimmicks tailor-made for vote grabbing and make specific demands for progress. In an interesting article on the myth of vote bank politics published in Kaafila, writer Sohail Hashmi questions the theory that Muslims vote as one single community by pointing out the several sectarian division and class divisions that the community is fraught with as much as Hindus. He notes:

"...We have Muslims divided in a large number of sects, Muslims divided among high and low, Muslims divided among contending classes and there isn’t one religious leader whose pronouncements have universal acceptance. Is there then any possibility of Muslims still behaving like a Vote Bank?"

And if that pattern indeed holds true in the present political landscape, maybe Rahul Gandhi doesn't have to lose sleep over a handful of imams and Wakf lands. However, he will also have reconsider vote-bait strategies and public outreach programmes that the Congress has traditionally depended on to wrench Muslim votes en masse.