Guj polls: After 20 yrs, Cong may finally topple Modi this time

Ahmedabad: The sense of urgency in the Congress camp in Gujarat is palpable. For a party out of power for nearly two decades, this has to be a do-or-die effort. After taking a battering from the BJP in every successive election, it finally appears that the party’s leaders have got their act together. The sense of urgency is laced with dollops of optimism despite the challenge they are up against. There’s a belief that they can oust Narendra Modi from power this time.The elections of 2012 will in no way be like the elections of 2002 and 2007, say the party leaders. Curiously, their source of hope is not so much the perceived weaknesses of Modi as the delimitation exercise. Boundaries of 60 of the 182 constituencies have been redrawn by the Election Commission. The delimitation exercise will change equations at the ground level which the parties were familiar with so far."Modi is a worried man. He is nervous too,’’ says Hansmukh Patel, former minister and member of the advisory council of the Pradesh Congress Committee. "The delimitation exercise will affect the BJP most because most of the constituencies redrawn have been held by the party for a long time. The party will need to re-think caste and other equations and draw up a fresh strategy altogether, which is not easy. We are going to be affected too but the impact will be less in our case,’’ he adds.Delimitation is a definite worry for the BJP since in the elections of 2007 the victory margin in 25 seats was only 3,000 votes; in another 40 the margin was less than 10,000 votes. With the voter composition changing, the results could change too. The Congress at the moment, however, is not too worried about the consequences the redrawn constituencies might have for itself.[caption id="attachment_520113" align="alignleft" width="380"] A section of the BJP and the RSS, particularly the old guard, is unhappy with Modi and wants to cut him down to size. PTI[/caption]"Ten to 12 ministers in the government will need to find new constituencies. That’s a difficult task. Modi understands the complexity of the situation. That is why he has been touring the remote areas of the state to drum up support in the rural areas. This did not happen earlier,’’ says Patel.The party has an eye on Keshubhai Patel in the Saurashtra region too. It does not have much to gain here but is hopeful that the Gujarat Parivartan Party will manage to cut down the number of seats of the BJP. "In at least 10 to 15 seats Keshubhai’s party is going to cause an upset for the BJP. In the tri-angular contest, the Congress would certainly end up with a few more seats,’’ said another Congress leader.What makes the party look united this time? "Well, the reason is simple. The current crop of senior leaders is getting older. The youngest of them are in the age bracket of 55-60. If they don’t do it this time, they will have to wait till 2017. It’s a now or never situation for them. They suffered due to factionalism in 2007, now they have to bury their egos and put up a united fight. There’s pressure from Delhi too.’’The party also sees the friction between the Sangh Parivar and Modi as a big disadvantage for the latter. A section of the BJP and the RSS, particularly the old guard, is unhappy with Modi and wants to cut him down to size. Without the Sangh’s active participation, the booth level management during the polls and voter mobilisation will suffer. This will work to the advantage of the Congress, party leaders feel."The Congress is working to a strategy this time. It’s focusing on local issues and has started its grassroots operations very early. Despite his tall claims Modi has not done much in the rural areas. Unemployment is high and the marginalised sections have not gained much under Modi. There are several pockets of anger against him which the Congress is planning to cash in on. Its primary focus is on central Gujarat where it could do much better,’’ said Patel.To entice voters, the party has already announced the Ghar nu Ghar scheme which targets the homeless families in urban Gujarat. Enthused by the overwhelming response to it, it has decided to announce a free plot scheme for the rural areas and its own MNREGA, promising an additional 100 days of employment under the scheme. The free plot scheme envisages 900 square-feet plots to rural homeless families.In this election, for a change, the Congress has done its homework well. Whether it’s enough to take on Modi is another matter.