Trump-Xi meeting: Managing tensions, not resolving them

Last week’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping was high on pomp and ceremony but short on substance and delivery.

Though the visit stopped short of any major breakthrough on contentious issues, tentative steps at repairing a broken relationship were taken. The optics were good. Trump and his team declared that China would order up to 200 planes from Boeing, help American farmers by buying soybeans, beef, poultry and other agricultural products, as well as oil. There was no confirmation from China. At best, these are tentative moves that could take shape as ties progress.

Both sides appeared content that the groundwork has been laid for a more stable phase in bilateral ties. That, for the moment, is reassuring, considering that Trump’s second term in office began with massive tariff hikes on all trading partners, including China, and a tit-for-tat tariff war between the two. However, when China turned the screws by announcing restrictions on rare earth supplies, Trump hastily called for talks and backed off. At the moment, an average effective tariff rate on Chinese imports remains around 30 per cent to 31.6 per cent. Neither side mentioned tariffs in their respective read-outs from the meeting, though unidentified US officials said that a joint mechanism to lower tariffs was on the cards.

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Considering the level of mistrust between the two countries, it was foolish to expect a major breakthrough during this visit. The Trump-Xi meeting helped to clear the air and led to a better understanding of each other’s positions. Xi’s planned visit to Washington in September could prove more substantive, as the two strategic rivals begin to cautiously recalibrate their relationship. Trump is expected to be in China again this year for the APEC summit.

Misplaced Expectations over Iran

Ahead of Trump’s visit to China, there was much speculation in the American media that Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz would be at the top of the bilateral agenda. The expectation was that, as Trump is desperately looking for an exit strategy before the mid-term elections in November, China could be helpful. The expectations were clearly misplaced from the start.

China, like other Asian countries, is affected by the closure of the waterways, but it is better placed than others to face the crisis. For one, it has the largest strategic reserve of oil; electric cars and solar power are all part of the energy mix. China could make public appeals to open the Strait of Hormuz, but is unlikely to put unnecessary pressure on Iran for either rolling back its nuclear programme or opening the waterways.

Even if Xi was inclined to help Trump, there is no reason to believe that Tehran will agree to China’s suggestion. It is not a country that takes dictation even from friends. Iran is a proud nation and will do only what serves its best interests, as it fights for survival on its terms. It will make compromises when it suits the regime.

China is in no mood to bail out Trump from what it terms an illegal war against Iran. It is one thing to call for opening the Strait of Hormuz and quite another to actively work for it.

Taiwan

For China, Taiwan is a core issue in relations with the US. Xi said at the meeting that if Taiwan is “handled properly”, bilateral relations with America will remain stable. Otherwise, the two countries will clash and put the entire relationship in jeopardy. Xi has used the phrase “strategic stability”, underlining that non-interference in Taiwan and assurance that America will adopt a hands-off policy are essential. Simply put, non-interference in Taiwan is the price the US has to pay. From rare earths to fentanyl, all are linked to how Trump handles Taiwan.

The US had signed an $11 billion arms deal with Taiwan last year. A fresh arms purchase to the tune of $14 billion is ready for Trump’s signature. He has not yet done so and has kept it as a bargaining chip. Also, in an off-the-cuff remark to reporters while on his way back home, Trump said he would call Taiwan President Lai Ching-te. That would be a red line for China. Since 1979, no US president has spoken to a sitting Taiwanese president. If he does that, the purpose of the entire trip would be lost. Most analysts believe that Trump will not do so at a time when relations are in a precarious state. The meeting eased tensions but delivered little substance, leaving key issues unresolved as the US and China cautiously navigate a fragile relationship.

(Seema Guha is a journalist who has extensively covered foreign policy and geopolitics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)