Tariffs, turmoil and the midterms: Beginning of the end of the Trump era

In his annual State of the Union address, US President Donald Trump said he had ushered in the “Golden Age of America”. He went on to repeat his criticism of the recent Supreme Court ruling outlawing his arbitrary trade tariffs.

Bizarrely, Trump declared that tariffs would eventually replace income tax in America — acknowledging for the first time that tariffs are a tax on the American people.

Trump went on to repeat the claim that he had stopped eight wars, including a nuclear war between India and Pakistan that would have killed “35 million people”. Trump said that this is what Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told him personally.

There are good reasons for Trump’s fury following the Supreme Court verdict outlawing his arbitrary tariffs. Not only have the tariffs been ruled illegal, the Court’s verdict represents the first official challenge to Trump’s presidential authority.

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So far, even Democrats in the Senate and House of Representatives have struggled to hold Trump to account. Trump has meanwhile mocked Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, threatened countries around the world with retribution if they dared question his new tariffs, prepared for war against Iran, and demolished the East Wing of the White House to build a ballroom that will be larger than the White House itself.

Till the nine-member Supreme Court delivered its ruling last week, Trump seemed to have no serious worries about the opposition. Now, rather than leading America into a golden age as he claimed in his State of the Union address, Trump has three reasons to worry.

First is the Supreme Court order itself. It will make Trump’s attempt to use other laws to impose global tariffs much more difficult. Whether he uses Section 388 from a law passed in 1930 during the Great Depression — and which has never been used in the 96 years since then — or any other law under various Trade Expansion Acts, Trump’s days of bullying other countries are over.

Trump had weaponised trade tariffs as an instrument of state policy. With that leverage weakened, Trump will now have to use the only other lever he has left: America’s formidable military power.

For a president who sought the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped eight wars, Trump is about to trigger the ninth in Iran.

A second worry looms. New revelations in the three million documents released publicly from the Jeffrey Epstein files point directly to Trump and his senior Cabinet ministers, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, being involved in improper conduct with the convicted paedophile.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor (formerly Prince Andrew, King Charles’s younger brother) was arrested by the British police for his close involvement with Epstein but released 11 hours later pending investigation into allegations that Andrew shared confidential UK trade documents while serving as Britain’s international trade envoy.

Britain’s former ambassador to Washington, Peter Mandelson, was also arrested for his ties to Epstein. He has been stripped of his peerage and membership of the House of Lords and could face prison. The British establishment is ruthless with those who tarnish Britain’s carefully curated reputation.

Americans are more cavalier. No senior public official has yet paid the price for links to Epstein, though the Clintons — Bill and Hillary — are being grilled by a Congressional committee for ties to Epstein.

Trump himself dismisses allegations of his links with Epstein, though several documents appear to contradict that claim.

It is the third worry, however, that could impact Trump the most: the forthcoming Congressional midterm elections. If Trump loses the House of Representatives to the Democratic Party — and the latest opinion polls show that he almost certainly will — the blow could be even more severe than the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs or revelations in the Epstein files. It could spell the beginning of the end of the Trump era.

According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos opinion poll, Trump’s disapproval rate is now 60 per cent. He scores particularly badly on inflation (65 per cent disapproval) and tariffs (64 per cent disapproval).

Without a majority in the House, Trump at the midpoint of his presidential term in November will in effect be a lame duck — unable to prosecute wars without explicit Congressional approval or impose arbitrary tariffs.

By January 2027, primaries for the November 2028 presidential election will begin. Trump turns 81 in June 2027. Focus will switch to his potential successors, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The Democratic Party will conduct its own primaries, with California Governor Gavin Newsom an early frontrunner.

Trump knows time is running out: the clock on his second and final presidential term is ticking. The next few weeks and months will see frenetic activity by Trump and his inner circle as they seek to re-establish their authority over tariff negotiations with countries around the world, deal with the Epstein fallout, and prepare for an attack on Iran while campaigning for the midterm elections.

Two events will provide a welcome distraction for a wounded, rampaging Trump. The 2026 World Cup kicks off in June in the US, Canada and Mexico. Trump will be omnipresent, soaking in the exposure and adulation from his MAGA base.

A month later, on July 4, 2026, Trump will celebrate 250 years of America’s independence. But when the celebratory music stops and the world’s footballers return home in August, Trump will face his moment of truth: the November Congressional midterm election.

Trump will demit office, leaving a legacy for history to judge.

(The writer is an editor, author and publisher. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)