Nepal’s ballot revolt: Voters seek change after years of political musical chairs

March 2, the last day of campaigning for the March 5 elections, also coincided with Holi celebrations, mostly in the vicinity of temples. On March 4, election booths were set up with police—discredited during the 'GenZ Andolan' last September 7-8—and not the army, as many had predicted. Army Quick Reaction Teams are patrolling the area but have declined to be deployed around booths or transport ballot boxes to designated counting centres.

March 5 was the quietest day, as the use of vehicles, except those on election duty, has been banned. This did not happen in the last 2020 national elections, which I witnessed. This month, I was privy to the campaigning, house-to-house vote-seeking, and the actual casting of votes in the Kaski 1 and 2 constituencies of Gandaki Province near Pokhara.

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The mood of the people across the country is to reject the old, traditional parties such as the Nepali Congress, CPN UML and CPN Maoist for their failure to eliminate corruption and provide jobs and good governance. Three prime ministers—Sher Bahadur Deuba, KP Oli and Prachanda—have played musical chairs for the post. Frustrated with their record, people want change and development, including economic stimulus.

About 1,500 youth leave Nepal daily seeking greener pastures, and 8 to 9 million Nepalis abroad have become the mainstay of the economy through remittances of around $10 billion, roughly equivalent to the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Outside the polling booth of constituency Kaski 1, located in a high school building along the Pokhara–Kathmandu highway, people were queuing from 7 am to vote in the mixed electoral system — 165 seats through First Past the Post (FPTP) and 110 through Proportional Representation (PR). From my conversations with voters who were willing to share their preference for candidates and parties, I gathered that an overwhelming majority were likely to vote for the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in PR regardless of familiarity with the candidate. The direct election candidates were Tilak Rana Bhat from NC, Bain Bahadur Adhikari (UML), Ganesh Poudyal (RSP) and Rajkaji Gurung (NCP, former Maoists).

There is a world of difference in style and substance between NC and RSP candidates. The NC lot appear ageing and lacking in ‘josh’, whereas RSP candidates and campaigners were youthful and spirited, ringing the ‘ghanti’ (bell, the party symbol). Twenty-eight of their candidates are PhD holders, and RSP supporters abroad have urged their friends and relatives to vote for the bell. Three high-profile contests include KP Oli versus Balen Shah in Jhapa; NC’s new president and prime ministerial face, Gagan Thapa, against RSP’s Amrish Singh in Sarlahi; and RSP’s Swarnim Wagle against NC’s Govind Bhattarai in Tanahu 1 (Bhattarai lost to Wagle in 2022).

Buddhiman Gurung of Lame Ahal says traditional voting patterns have changed: families are split, with female spouses more likely to vote for RSP and for change. By 5 pm, the gate to the high school voting booth in the Kaski 1 seat was sealed. A 60 per cent voter turnout — compared with 62 per cent in 2022 — was recorded. Leads and trends will not be known until the evening of March 6, as two sets of votes have to be counted manually. RSP, which made its debut in 2022 with 21 seats, is likely to become the single largest party, not far from the majority figure of 138 in a 275-member legislature. Former rapper and Kathmandu mayor Balen Shah, a Madhesi by birth, could be the new prime minister of Nepal.

(The author is former GOC IPKF South Sri Lanka and founder member Defence Planning Staff, now Integrated Defence Staff, Ministry of Defence. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)