New dawn in Nepal: Balen’s RSP sweep ends old order, India must grasp the generational shift

The Rashtriya Swatantra Party’s (RSP) electoral triumph is unprecedented in the modern history of Nepal. The tsunami that swept across Nepal is the mother of all surprises, full of shock and awe even for the victors. The Maoist victory of the 2008 elections following the decade-long insurgency is no match for the RSP's spectacular achievement of winning 180 seats, a two-thirds majority within grasp in a legislature of 275 members.

Conspicuously, RSP has not a single member in the 59-seat Upper House. The magic mantra for this mass rousing was provided by two youthful leaders – the former anchor and TV host, Rabi Lamichhane, and the former rapper and mayor of Kathmandu, the dynamic Balen Shah. The Shah-Lamichhane wave was felt and heard from the ringing of bells (RSP election symbol) across Nepal. The craze for Balen and Rabi is despite Lamichhane being on bail and tainted with blemishes of fraud and jail terms.

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RSP bagged 125 of 165 seats in First Past The Post (FPTP) in the mixed electoral system, which reserves 110 seats for Proportional Representation (PR). According to some political analysts, this is the bane of politics: preventing a single-party majority, a hypothesis which RSP has demolished. Gen Z had sought an overhaul of the electoral system, which will entail constitutional amendments to ensure political stability. RSP’s near two-thirds majority will enable alterations to the constitution if necessary.

Let’s be clear. The Communist Party of Nepal Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN UML), the Nepali Congress (NC) and, to a lesser extent, the Nepal Communist Party (former Maoists) swapped premiership between them. Frustrated with scams, scandals and misgovernance, the Nepali janta decided to punish them by rewarding the ‘ghanti’ party, demanding Parivartan (transformation) and vikas (development), which RSP has pledged in its election manifesto. It has also promised 6 per cent GDP growth to create 1.5 million jobs and double per capita income from $1500 to $3000.

The ignominy of 1500 youths leaving daily for jobs abroad and one-third of the country’s 30 million population working outside has long required a remedy. RSP has backed the Gen Z reform agenda, including it in its manifesto. Intellectually in sync, Gen Z and RSP make a good match, with many of its members joining it, including their leader Sudan Gurung, who has won the Gorkha seat. In the 2022 elections, when RSP made its debut, it won just 21 seats. NC, UML and CPN-Maoist secured 89, 78 and 32 seats, respectively.

RSP’s demolition job on NC, UML and Maoists was brutal, reducing them to 17, 10 and 8 seats against their 121 in FPTP seats. Smaller parties, Madhesis and especially Royalists have been substantially diminished. Two former Left party PMs, KP Oli and Madhav Nepal, were defeated by RSP candidates, with Oli slaughtered by Balen Shah. NC’s PM hopeful and former general secretary who catapulted to party president, Gagan Thapa, was trounced by former NC’s Amrish Singh, who had switched to RSP.

I watched the RSP mince NC and UML candidates in their strongholds of Kaski 1, 2 and 3 constituencies in Pokhara. While NC heeded the lessons of Gen Z Andolan by overhauling the party and realigning policy (which did not work), UML scorned the Gen Z programmes, with Oli calling them arsonists and an ‘illegitimate group’. Maoist supremo Prachanda did a quick makeover, removing the Maoist tag, regrouping with smaller Left parties and rechristening his pack as the Nepal Communist Party, which had an earlier avatar in 2017-18 which China had supported. It consisted of five former Left PMs, but the party fizzled out as it was the result of an unnatural conception.

The Communists have for long dominated Parliament with a 60 per cent majority, which has prevented progressive reforms. With RSP’s overwhelming parliamentary victory, Communist influence on the lower house will reduce significantly to about 20 per cent. UML and Maoists had together declined to accept the Agnipath/Agniveer scheme, resulting in the suspension of Nepal-domiciled Gorkha recruitment in the Indian Army since 2022, which China had quietly lauded. This was a serious rupture in the strategic bonding between India and Nepal, which RSP is expected to repair.

The overwhelming majority for RSP is a reflection of the trust and confidence placed in them by the people. But it is also a liability, as it will enlarge expectations, which will be a big challenge for it. The first and foremost task for the new government is mending the skewed economy dependent on tourism and remittances. Nepal’s economy is $45 billion with a foreign exchange reserve of $10 billion, which approximates annual remittances.

Former NC leader Swarnim Wagle, who won his seat a second time on an RSP ticket from Tanhu 1, is a renowned economist with enviable credentials. London School of Economics and Harvard, Chief Economic Advisor for UNDP for Asia Pacific and Vice Chairman, Nepal Planning Commission. He is the likely finance minister in the new government. He will also drive a campaign for anti-corruption and will initiate unearthing past scams and scandals. Good governance by RSP is not a given and will have to be demonstrated with deeds, not words.

Police morale was seriously compromised during Gen Z Andolan and has to be restored through training and modern equipment. An overhaul of bureaucracy, the majority selected during Oli’s two tenures, is warranted. The army has done a splendid job ensuring the stability of the Sushila Karki-led interim government. The buzz in Kathmandu is that Karki could replace as president the current ailing incumbent, NC's Ram Chandra Poudyel. An election that many thought was impossible was made feasible by Karki. Do not predict or gauge Balen Shah’s foreign policy trajectory from his utterances as the Kathmandu mayor. As PM he will be guided by strategic geography and established realities. Deviations, if any, will be in semantics, not substance. For Nepal, RSP is expected to bring in a new dawn.

(The author is former GOC IPKF South Sri Lanka and founder member Defence Planning Staff, now Integrated Defence Staff, Ministry of Defence. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)