Iran war has upended Gulf security: What happens next?

Caught in the crossfire between the US and Iran, the oil-rich Gulf monarchies and sheikhdoms are waking up to a dangerous new reality. Being friends with the world’s only superpower and hosting American troops does not buy protection or insulate the region from the consequences of a war they did not choose.

Iran’s attack on its energy infrastructure has exposed the vulnerability of the Gulf rulers. It has also shredded the image of the region as a safe haven for foreign investment and a hub for international business. The region’s selling points, stability, openness, and insulation from regional turmoil lie in tatters.

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The anxiety has led to deep introspection among ruling families on how best to navigate the changing geopolitical landscape. Questions naturally arise as to whether they were wise to have put all their eggs in the US-Israeli basket.

Iran was always seen by the Sunni fiefdoms of the region as a threat. More so after the Iranian Revolution of 1979. For decades, the sheikhdoms of the Persian Gulf have operated under the shadow of Shia Iran, the region’s largest and most assertive power, whose size, strategic depth, and ideological posture generated unease across Arab capitals.

Iran with nuclear weapons was an existential threat, forcing countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia to play ball with Israel and nip Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

This latent anxiety has shaped the region’s security doctrine, driving countries to rely heavily on US guarantees and seek close defence cooperation with Washington.

So, an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities during the 12-day war in 2025 by the US was privately cheered by the ruling families of the region. The first few hours of the US-Israel attack on February 28 that decapitated the political and military leadership of the country, including killing the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, were seen as a major success.

Iran’s counterattack in the next forty-eight hours changed the narrative. Tehran fired around 165 ballistic and cruise missiles and over 600 drones against US allies and the infrastructure of the Gulf states. Primary targets were oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, a liquefied petroleum plant in Qatar, and US-aligned naval and military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. The aim was to cripple energy infrastructure across the Gulf region.

Now three months into the war, the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s energy resources pass, is at a standstill, first blockaded by Iran and then counter-blockaded by the US. A ceasefire is in place, but with peace talks going nowhere, it is just about holding on, for now.

Like the rest of the world, the Gulf rulers are calling for de-escalation. Yet their position is far from straightforward. Even as they publicly call for de-escalation, several Gulf states have quietly pressed Washington to ensure that Iran emerges from the conflict decisively weakened, unable to threaten them again. This underscores the region’s deep anxieties and strategic hedging.

Even as formal alliances remain intact, internal fractures are complicating the regional picture. The once closely aligned partnership between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is increasingly marked by rivalry, as both states compete for geopolitical influence within and beyond the Gulf Cooperation Council. In Sudan, in Yemen, in Libya and in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, the two are backing opposing sides. Saudi commentators are openly criticising the UAE. The Emiratis are more closely aligned with the US and Israel than the rest. This explains Iran’s constant strikes on UAE targets.

There is also unease that when push comes to shove, Washington is more committed to safeguarding Israel than to the security of its Gulf partners.

Looming over the Gulf kingdoms is this pertinent question: What is in store after the war ends? Iran, as of now, is emerging stronger than it was before. Israel, since its war on Gaza, is the foremost military power in the region, with dreams of carving out a greater Israel, as promised in the New Testament. Will Israel eventually be more of a threat than Iran?

These are issues that the Gulf-Arab rulers have to grapple with. It is clear that no one can risk abandoning the US. But without jeopardising ties with Washington, countries will look to security pacts with other powers, much as Saudi Arabia has done with Pakistan. The path forward is far from clear. The predictable dynamics of the past have given way to uncertainty. The debate has begun, but it is still early days, and much will depend on how the war ends

(Seema Guha is a journalist who has extensively covered foreign policy and geopolitics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)