Why India should lead peace efforts in West Asia

The US-Israel coalition is currently engaged in an intense, sustained, and escalatory military campaign against Iran. The current war follows a 12-day conflict in June 2025 and is part of a broader, long-term effort by the US and Israel to dismantle Iran's nuclear and missile programmes. Initiated on February 28, 2026, the conflict is now in its third week, with no immediate signs of a ceasefire. Iran has responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel and US assets in the region, alongside accusations that Western forces are undermining regional security.

The situation is emerging as one where there could be different nightmarish strategic scenarios. One scenario is 'Boots on the Ground'. However, sending American soldiers into Iran, a country of over 90 million people with mountainous terrain and a "martyrdom" mindset, is seen as a potentially disastrous option similar to or worse than the 20-year Afghanistan war, resulting in massive troop casualties. Iran's vast, mountainous geography—specifically the jagged Zagros Mountains—favours decentralised "mosaic defence" tactics, which could immediately stall heavy armour. The Boots on the Ground strategy would likely lead to sustained US casualties in a hostile environment. While the US possesses the military capability for such an invasion, it could require hundreds of thousands of troops to occupy the country, transforming a limited campaign into a "forever siege".

More from Opinion

A second scenario is easing military pressure or pulling back, which would lead to Iran expanding its regional influence, leaving Israel to fight alone against Iran and its proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis and portraying American weakness. This path could result in the loss of US influence in the Middle East, leaving Israel to face Iran and its proxies (Hezbollah, etc) alone. Given the close US-Israel alliance, this option is considered unlikely.

The third—and most likely—scenario involves the continuation of the US-Israel bombing of Iranian nuclear sites and infrastructure, which risks global destabilisation. The scenario, marked by the 12-Day War in June 2025 and subsequent escalations in February/March 2026, has seen the US, under President Trump, moving to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities while Iran has continued its retaliatory measures. This option includes the potential for killing massive numbers of civilians and triggering a "long war" that disrupts global energy markets.

Could Trump push the nuclear button? His administration maintains that "all options are on the table" to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, a phrase historically used to include nuclear contingencies without explicitly naming them. However, while President Trump has authorised major conventional military operations against Iran, he has not publicly signalled the use of nuclear weapons. The administration's current doctrine emphasises "decisive force" and "coercive diplomacy", relying on its massive conventional air and naval buildup in the Middle East to achieve its objectives without yet crossing the nuclear threshold. The US is reportedly deploying an additional 2,500 Marines to West Asia, augmenting the 50,000 personnel already in the region.

President Trump has stated that Iran is "totally defeated and wants a deal". On the other hand, Iran has officially rejected ceasefire negotiations, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating that Tehran is prepared to defend itself "as long as it takes," thus denying that they are seeking a deal, contrary to US assertions. Moreover, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is actively seeking retaliation for the killing of its commanders, making a rapid halt unlikely. The IRGC has vowed to pursue and kill Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom they have described as a “child-killing criminal”.

Against this backdrop, the big question is: how to end the Iran war? A shift away from continued attacks by the Trump administration is essential to preventing a deeper, more protracted war and allowing for an exit. The restoration of shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz is a key priority for the US, which may offer a focal point for ceasefire negotiations, despite Iran's ability to maintain pressure through naval drones and mines. The conflict requires direct or indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington to establish a ceasefire. Third-party mediation involving international actors, particularly those with diplomatic influence, may be needed to facilitate a truce between the parties.

The United Nations Human Rights Office has specifically identified India as a country with the global influence necessary to play a constructive role in de-escalating the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel. UN official Ravina Shamdasani noted that India, alongside other influential nations, could encourage a recommitment to the UN Charter to bring the regional crisis to an end.

India has a critical, multi-faceted stake in ending the ongoing conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States, as the instability threatens its energy security, economic stability, and diaspora in the Gulf region. The conflict has disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz—through which 90 per cent of India's LPG imports pass—creating shortages in cooking gas and pushing up energy prices. Over 10 million Indian citizens live in the region. The war puts roughly $50 billion in remittances at risk and presents a massive challenge for the protection and potential evacuation of Indian nationals. A proactive, balanced, and behind-the-scenes role that advocates for dialogue and diplomacy is the most logical path forward for India.

(The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as ambassador in Kuwait and Morocco and as Consul General in New York. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)