How arrests of Western mercenaries signal the ‘new great game’ at India’s doorstep

Mercenaries like the American Mathew Van Dyke and the six Ukrainians, now in NIA custody, are possibly freebooters out for a quick buck, but their handlers are the real players in the emerging 'Great Game East'.

Since the 2021 Myanmar military coup, which enjoyed Chinese support, the US has sought to strengthen all those fighting the military junta. They have supplied war material to the People's Defence Forces aligned to the opposition National Unity Government (NUG) and the ethnic rebel armies like the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Arakan Army (AA). And the Western mercenaries who went to fight in Myanmar were sent primarily to train the rebels, especially in modern combat technology like the use of drones.

US Wants Military Junta's Ouster

The West, specifically the US, has sought the defeat of the Burmese army Tatmadaw across Myanmar, so the military-ruled state falls apart in the absence of an obvious democratic alternative that existed when Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) was in power for five years prior to the coup.

More from Opinion

The NLD got a huge mandate in the 2020 polls, but the all-powerful army felt Suu Kyi would soon usher in major amendments to the 2008 Constitution, which would marginalise the military. and renew the dialogue with the ethnic rebel armies. No wonder, immediately after the coup, the military junta reneged on the nationwide ceasefire and unleashed repression across Myanmar.

Ethnic rebel armies, no longer hopeful of political reconciliation, resumed their armed separatist campaigns. A few of them, like the Arakan Army, got together to form Brotherhood alliances. Even Myanmar’s pro-democracy struggle took a violent turn after the army brutally crushed the street protests, forcing even the ethnic Burmans to form armed groups like the People's Defence Forces.

The Burma Act

The US Congress responded to the 2021 coup by passing the Burma Act that authorised the President to impose sanctions on "certain foreign persons (ie, an individual or entity), including those that (1) knowingly operate in Burma's defence sector, (2) are responsible for or complicit in undermining Burma's democratic processes, or (3) are senior leaders in Burma's military junta."

Since then, the US intelligence agencies have armed multiple rebel groups fighting the military junta and sent mercenaries to fight alongside them. On the other hand, the Chinese came out in strong support of the Burmese military dictatorship, though they may have been initially circumspect about the coup. The Chinese have too much at stake in Myanmar, especially the huge investments made in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor that links the southwestern Chinese province of Yunnan with the China-funded deep-sea port of Kyaukphyu on Myanmar’s Rakhine coast.

With PDF rebels attacking Chinese interests like off-take stations on the Yunnan-Kyaukphyu gas pipeline, Beijing had reasons to feel concerned. Much as China sees the Myanmar corridor as key to its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), the US sees the blocking of this corridor as key to its strategy of curbing growing Chinese influence. Which explains its growing support for the Myanmar rebel groups. If these groups militarily defeat the Tatmadaw and carve out their own de facto areas of control, the China-Myanmar Corridor cannot be effectively operationalised.

Behind Increased Mercenary Arrivals

Since using China is out of the question and Thailand is far away, Northeast India became the chosen corridor for the western mercenaries for reaching rebel groups like the Kachin Independence Army, the Arakan Army and the Chin groups. Sending these mercenaries is part of a strategic effort by Western agencies to arm and equip the rebel groups so that they can defeat the Burmese army, Tatmadaw.

The US self-proclaimed 'freedom fighter' Mathew Vandyke has made it clear in his social media posts that "we are here to teach them (local populations) how to fight". Vandyke even asserted that "it takes four to six weeks to do the job". That means the role of these Western mercenaries, seven now in NIA custody, was primarily to train the rebel fighters in the use of new technology like drone warfare and combat communications. Most rebels, like the Kachins and Arakanese, are battle-hardened mountain fighters, but they needed modern technology like the latest combat drones to make a difference.

Vandyke has played similar roles in Libya and Syria and surely in Ukraine — mobilised highly trained Western fighters, mostly former special forces veterans, to train local fighters in the latest combat technology. Drones are a special area of focus. VanDyke has picked up some Ukrainian veterans because it helps the US agencies cover their tracks and because the Ukrainians are masters in drone warfare, even sought after now by the Israelis.

With such training, the PDF unleashed a fierce swarm drone attack on Myanmar's capital, Naypyidaw, in April 2024. Government offices, including military ones, were hit, and at least one drone landed not far from the residence of the military junta chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. As recently as February this year, the Kachin rebels launched combat drones on Myitkina airport in Kachin state, severely damaging an aircraft of the Myanmar National Airways.

Mizo Chief Minister's Red Flag

Mizoram Chief Minister Pu Lalduhoma first raised the alarm about the large number of Western mercenaries using his state to sneak into neighbouring Myanmar in a statement before the state assembly in March last year.

He pointed to nearly 2000 Western tourists arriving in Mizoram, very few of whom were seen in the state's usual tourist spots.

Sources in Myanmar’s major rebel groups, like the Kachin Independence Army or the Arakan Army and the Chin rebel groups, told this writer that "hundreds of Western fighters" have come and fought alongside them in the last more than two years. They say these Western fighters mostly trained them in drone technology, modern communications and battle planning. "That has made a huge difference in the battlefield outcomes," said one rebel commander, but on condition of strict anonymity.

Indian intelligence and paramilitary officials agree. They say the presence of these Western fighters explains startling battlefield victories by rebel groups. The Arakan Army now controls almost the whole of Rakhine, except for three major towns, including the capital, Sittwe. The KIA rebels control much of the Kachin state, including its highly valued rare earth mines. Even the not-so-united Chin groups have taken control of important townships in the Chin Hills, and the PDF, at one point, was even threatening Mandalay, the second-largest town in Myanmar.

Implications for India

Many have questioned the timing of India's crackdown on the Western mercenaries now, since sources in multiple rebel groups in the Myanmar-India borderlands admit the presence of "hundreds" of such mercenaries in the past two years.

Some say the Manipur PLA's owning up to the drone strike on the Assam Rifles post recently caused particular concern because this rebel group not only has strong linkage with Myanmar’s Kachin rebels but also is in alliance with anti-Indian rebel groups like the ULFA and NSCN's Khaplang faction. Since the Indian military has used drones to target rebel bases inside Myanmar, in one of which a senior ULFA commander, Nayan Medhi, was killed, the fear is these groups may hit back once they can secure supplies from their Myanmar friends.

What has worried Indian security planners more is the emerging evidence that Mathew Vandyke and his gang not only trained Myanmar rebels in drone warfare but also helped them procure drones in knockdown condition through India. Training the rebels to reassemble them for combat use was evidently the most important element of the training process.

India may not like rising Chinese influence in Myanmar, but it surely would be reluctant to see the neighbouring country fall apart as a sovereign entity. India, like China, has invested in multiple transnational connectivity projects through Myanmar, like the Golden Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Transport project. Festering insurgencies in Myanmar may adversely impact India's Northeast at a time when Delhi wants to use it as a springboard for its 'Act East' policy to connect to the Tiger economies of Southeast Asia. Without a stable, peaceful and sovereign Myanmar, India's 'Act East' is a non-starter.

India is also trying to normalise relations with China, which will be more than happy with the crackdown on Western mercenaries. Since the US has gone after Indian intelligence operatives for the alleged murder plot of Sikh separatist leader GPS Pannun, and a US Religious Freedom Committee has even recommended sanctions against India's external intelligence agency R&AW, holding someone like Mathew Vandyke in Indian custody may not be an unwelcome prospect for intelligence czar Ajit Doval.

(Subir Bhaumik is a former BBC and Reuters correspondent and author on South Asian conflicts. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)