China’s space push in Pakistan poses strategic threats to India

On April 25, 2026, Pakistan launched its indigenous EO-3 (PRSC-EO3) satellite from China's Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre aboard a Long March-6 rocket. An electro-optical (EO) satellite is a type of Earth observation system that captures high-resolution images using sensors that can detect visible, near-infrared, and ultraviolet light.

This satellite is purportedly designed for enhanced Earth observation, including environmental monitoring and disaster management. Clearly, it will be a huge Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) asset. Pakistan’s Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) comes under the Ministry of Defence. Mohammad Yousuf Khan, chairman of SUPARCO, said on February 28 that the country expects to launch four more earth observation satellites by the end of the year.

Nearly 85 per cent of the Pakistani armed forces are made up of Chinese hardware. China’s deeper support in space further strengthens the nexus and collusiveness between the two. Time to look at the Pakistani space programme and the implications for India.

SUPARCO

SUPARCO, the Pakistani space agency, was formed in 1961 at Karachi as a committee by Pakistani physicist and Nobel laureate Abdus Salam eight years before the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), which was officially founded on August 15, 1969.

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On 7 July 1962, the commission launched the first rocket, known as "Rehbar-I", which reached the altitude of 128 kilometres (420,000 ft) in space. The United States publicly supported and hailed the programme as the beginning of “a programme of continuous cooperation in space research of mutual interest". Until 1972, the United States provided training on rocket engines at the Goddard Space Flight Center. The US funding and support diminished after 1972.

Following India's launch of its first satellite, Aryabhata, on a Soviet Kosmos-3M rocket in 1975, SUPARCO began lobbying for Pakistan's own satellite programme.

In 1981, the commission was reorganised as an independent federal agency. The Commission was tasked with learning the rocket engineering and contribution from France and the United States.

Gen Zia's decision to delay the PakSAT project in 1984, citing a lack of funds, led to a significant setback for SUPARCO. SUPARCO had begun constructing its first satellite, Badr-1, in 1983, and it was eventually launched by China in 1990 after negotiations with the United States failed. Badr-B was launched only in 2001 by Russia.

For long SUPARCO faced prolonged stagnation due to limited funding and shifting national priorities. That trajectory now appears to be changing.

SUPARCO also serves as the secretariat for the Pakistan Space Activities Regulatory Board (PSARB), which was established in February 2024 under the National Command Authority (NCA) to regulate all space-related activities in Pakistan.

The National Command Authority (NCA) is the ultimate authority responsible for command, control, and operational decisions regarding a nation's nuclear weapons. Headed by the Prime Minister, the composition includes top civilian and military officials, such as the Foreign, Defence, Interior, and Finance Ministers; Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee; Director General of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD); and services chiefs (Army, Navy, and Air Force). Effective control is with the Army Chief.

Pakistan-China Space Cooperation

The Pakistan-China space partnership involves joint satellite development, technology transfers, and training Pakistani astronauts to fly to China's Tiangong space station, reinforcing their “all-weather” strategic alliance.

Pakistan does not yet have its own launch facilities and has relied on Chinese rockets and infrastructure to deploy its satellites. China continues to play a vital role in launching Pakistan's satellites, including the PAKSAT-MM1 in May 2024 and the PRSC-EO3 in April 2026, which enhance Pakistan's Earth observation and remote sensing capabilities. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praised the scientists and engineers and also acknowledged China’s continued support.

In February 2025, a formal agreement was signed for a Pakistani astronaut to visit the Chinese Tiangong space station. Two Pakistani nationals, Muhammad Zeeshan Ali and Khurram Daud, were selected for training to join a future Shenzhou mission as payload specialists, marking a historic first for Pakistan in space. Also in 2025, it launched three remote sensing satellites, including HS-1, the country’s first hyperspectral imaging satellite. Pakistan sent its first lunar orbiter mission, called ICUBE-Q, along with China’s Chang'e 6. SUPARCO will also launch a 35 kg lunar rover with the Chang'e 8 mission.

While active cooperation accelerated recently, the relationship began in the 1990s with Chinese support for Pakistan's first satellite, Badr-I. The collaboration is supported by initiatives like the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organisation, aiming to support Pakistan's development planning, climate monitoring, and the “Digital Pakistan” initiative.

Major Active Pakistani Satellites

As of April 2026, Pakistan operates multiple active satellites, heavily focused on Earth observation and communication, with recent additions including the PRSC-EO3 (April 2026), EO-2 (Feb 2026), and HS-1 (Oct 2025) launched from China. Major active satellites include PAKSAT MM1R (May 2024) for communications; ICECUBE-Q CubeSat (May 2024); PRSS-1 & PAKTES-1A (2018) for remote sensing; and PAKSAT 1R (2011) for communication. Mostly launched by China.

Pakistan Rocket Programme

Pakistan's rocket programme is divided into a civilian space agency (SUPARCO), which focuses on satellites, and a military programme focused on ballistic and cruise missiles.

In 1987, the military funded the commission's design study on rocket engines for Hatf-I, which was completed with the Khan Research Laboratories (KRL), the national defence laboratory of the Ministry of Defence. In 1995, the Commission designed the rocket engine for the Abdali project, which was completed in 2004.

The Commission also conducted studies on rocket engines for the Shaheen programme. Today, the military sector maintains a robust arsenal, including the Shaheen and Ghauri ballistic missiles.

Pakistan’s “Space Vision 2040”, is a long-term project spanning 2011–2040 aimed at developing satellite technology for socio-economic benefits. It plans for five geostationary (GEO) and six low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Deep cooperation with China is central to current efforts, including technical collaboration.

Pakistan's military rocket programme is well-developed, with a focus on deterrence, often utilising technology with Chinese and North Korean assistance. The Shaheen (solid-fuel) and Ghauri (liquid-fuel) series are mainstays. Cruise missiles include the Fatah-4 and Taimoor (anti-ship). The Army Rocket Force is a dedicated organisation that operates conventional missiles to strike targets.

Satellite Navigation Programme

SUPARCO has been a pivotal player in Pakistan's satellite navigation landscape. It has established a Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS) on a proof-of-concept basis to provide correction signals to authorised users. Additionally, SUPARCO has deployed a Space-Based Augmentation System (SBAS) via PakSAT-MM1 to cater to the specific needs of aviation, marine, and land users who require high-integrity correction signals.

SUPARCO operates a satellite navigation signal monitoring facility that plays a crucial role in monitoring, archiving, and analysing satellite navigation signals from various monitoring stations located across Pakistan. This facility fosters collaboration with national and international organisations involved in satellite navigation systems.

Pakistan has been participating in a multinational humanitarian programme for satellite-aided search and rescue, the International Cospas-Sarsat Programme.

China’s Space Support to Pakistan in Op Sindoor

During Operation Sindoor, China reportedly provided Pakistan with critical real-time space-based support, including ISR data and satellite communication to aid in operations against India. This support involved satellite feeds for targeting, bolstering Pakistan's military action with Chinese-origin hardware and technology.

China provided actionable, live intelligence updates on Indian military movements via satellites during the operation. Open-source intelligence indicates Pakistan received data from Chinese Yaogan, Gaofan, and Jilin satellite constellations. China's space assets assisted in providing battlefield transparency and logistical support to Pakistani forces.

The space support was part of a larger, coordinated effort where China provided 85 per cent of Pakistan's military hardware, using the operation to test its weapons. This assistance highlighted growing collusivity, with China providing surveillance while Pakistan engaged in kinetic actions, acting as a “pressure valve” against India.

China denied direct involvement, while enough independent reports indicated high-level intelligence-sharing.

China’s New Satellite-Based Air Defence Support to Pakistan

Pakistan has reportedly activated indigenous, long-range, S-band, AM-350S radar and Machaan tactical AESA radars with a China-backed satellite link, reshaping South Asia’s air defence, claim Pakistani analysts. It is meant to track stealth fighters, cruise missiles, drones, and electronic warfare threats. Survivability increasingly depends on sensor dominance rather than just platform numbers alone for the network-centric kill chain. Machaan prioritises mobility and rapid displacement, which is essential when defending against adversaries capable of targeting radar emitters with precision stand-off weapons.

The most strategically consequential element is not the radars themselves but their reported integration with a China-backed satellite data link enabling real-time command-and-control across dispersed air defence nodes. Technical claims should still be treated with measured caution.

India’s Space Programme

The Indian space programme, spearheaded by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) since 1969, is a global leader in cost-effective space exploration, satellite launch technology, and remote sensing. Renowned for milestones like Chandrayaan-3 (moon south pole landing), Mars Orbiter Mission (Mangalyaan), and the reliable PSLV launcher, ISRO has transitioned from sounding rockets to interplanetary missions.

ISRO has developed indigenous capability with SLV (Satellite Launch Vehicle), ASLV (Augmented), PSLV (Polar), GSLV (Geo-Stationary), and LVM3 (Launch Vehicle Mark-3 (LVM3), formerly known as GSLV Mk III). Known as “India's Bahubali", LVM3 can put 4-tonne class satellites into Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) and heavy payloads up to 8 tonnes into Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

The INSAT series facilitates telecommunication and meteorology, while IRS (Indian Remote Sensing) satellites support natural resource management.

Key successes include: 

India’s Space Challenges

India's space programme faces challenges in scaling up technology for heavy-lift missions (e.g., LVM3), a reliance on foreign components, and the need for greater private sector participation. Other key challenges include launching complex manned missions (Gaganyaan), competing in the global commercial market, and addressing launch failures and supply chain limitations.

While ISRO has proven expertise, it lags behind the U.S. and China in heavy-lift capabilities. China’s Long March 5, two CZ-5 variants: the CZ-5 and CZ-5B space launch vehicles. The maximum payload capacities are approximately 25,000 to low Earth orbit (for CZ-5B) and approximately 14,000 kg to geostationary transfer orbit (for CZ-5).

India has sometimes had an insufficient number of annual launches (only 5 in 2025). The US had 193 orbital launch attempts in 2025, and China had 92 orbital space launches.

India still relies on foreign suppliers for critical space components, which can create bottlenecks. Although 100 per cent FDI is permitted, the private sector faces hurdles due to the lack of a comprehensive “Space Activities Act", leaving a “legal vacuum” for space startups.

For Gaganyaan, developing indigenous technology for life support systems, crew escape systems, and reliable, high-thrust rocket engines remains a challenge, as does the shortage of training facilities like zero-gravity simulators.

The increasing militarisation of space in South Asia, particularly with China, puts pressure on India to accelerate its national security-focused satellite and defence programmes. As of early 2026, India operates over 55 active satellites, with plans to significantly expand this fleet to over 100 in the coming years.

As of March 2026, India's NavIC (Navigation with Indian Constellation) programme is facing a severe operational crisis, with only 3 satellites providing active position, navigation, and timing (PNT) services, falling below the minimum requirement of 4. Major global satellite navigation programmes, collectively known as GNSS, include the US GPS, Russian GLONASS, European Galileo, and Chinese BeiDou, which provide worldwide positioning.

Recent incidents, such as the PSLV-C61 and C62 mission failures in 2025-2026 linked to third-stage anomalies, underscore the need for improved quality control.

Conclusion

Despite starting early, Pakistan's space programme faced political instability and funding issues, causing it to fall behind India. It was initially supported by the US, but after the 1990s, they were totally linked to China.

China is significantly boosting Pakistan’s space programme, marked by the April 2026 launch of the PRSC-EO3 satellite and the selection of Pakistani astronauts for training aboard China’s Tiangong space station. This collaboration accelerates Pakistan's “Space Vision 2040”, enhancing its remote sensing capabilities and strategic, military-related technological prowess.

The launch of PRSC-EO3 boosts Pakistan's remote sensing and Earth observation capabilities, allowing better surveillance over India's territory and military assets. The deepened China-Pakistan axis acts as a “strategic partnership” that links Pakistan's space development directly to China's advanced technology. The partnership strengthens Pakistan's space assets against India's superior ISRO-backed programmes, potentially increasing the vulnerability of Indian assets and creating new security pressures in space.

Further, two Pakistani astronauts will train in China, with one expected to join the Shenzhou 24 mission in 2026, elevating Pakistan's technological image in the region.

The Sino-Pakistani space collaboration is complemented by deeper defence cooperation, including prospective deals for advanced aircraft and missile defence systems.

India’s national security and defence priorities include space-based surveillance and meeting the target of deploying up to 52 remote sensing and intelligence satellites by 2029–30 for real-time monitoring of borders and maritime domains. It further requires:

Lastly, India must monitor closely the development of space-based cooperation between its two adversary neighbours.

(The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)