How AI can help South Asian nations manage global energy shocks
The integration of artificial intelligence into national crisis management systems is now a strategic imperative, transforming fuel crisis management from a localised operational response into a globally aware, proactive security strategy
The escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel represents a "global energy stress test" with profound implications for international fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) security. At the heart of this vulnerability is the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint responsible for the passage of approximately 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas supply. Disruptions in this region trigger immediate global shockwaves, including price spikes exceeding $100 per barrel, supply chain halts, and domestic economic instability.
For importing nations, particularly in South Asia, traditional reactive management is no longer sufficient. The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into national crisis management systems is now a strategic imperative. AI facilitates resilience through predictive modelling, global risk monitoring, and optimised resource allocation, transforming fuel crisis management from a localised operational response into a globally aware, proactive security strategy.
More from OpinionThe Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Energy Chokepoint
The ongoing Iran-US-Israel conflict centres geographically and strategically on the Strait of Hormuz. The security of this narrow route is paramount to global energy stability due to the following factors:
- Supply Volume: Approximately 20 per cent of global oil and gas supply traverses this route.
- Operational Disruptions: Recent military actions, including strikes on infrastructure and tanker disruptions, have led to stranded tankers and halted exports.
- Existential Threats: Iranian officials have warned of scenarios where “not a litre of oil” would be permitted to pass through the strait, indicating a total halt of energy flows.
Regional Vulnerability and Economic Impact
South Asian nations, specifically India, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, face the highest exposure to these energy shocks due to their heavy reliance on imported oil and LPG. The consequences of Middle Eastern disruptions manifest rapidly across several sectors.
Market and Supply Chain Effects
Price Volatility: Rapid increases in global oil prices, often surpassing $100 per barrel.
Logistical Delays: Significant interruptions in LPG imports, shipping schedules, and tanker rerouting or cancellations.
Depletion of Reserves: Reduced availability of fuel at national depots and potential premature depletion of strategic reserves.
Socio-Economic Consequences
Inflationary Pressure: Increased transportation costs lead to direct inflation in food and essential goods.
Public Disorder: Local shortages often trigger panic buying and the formation of long queues at distribution points.
Economic Instability: Global disruptions have the power to shut down local fuel availability and destabilise entire national economies.
AI-Powered Crisis Management Applications
In a landscape where fuel crises are global and fast-moving, AI is categorised as an essential tool for maintaining national security. Six critical areas where AI enhances management capabilities:
- Global Risk Monitoring: Tracks geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and price volatility to provide weeks of advance notice for potential shortages.
- Import Risk Prediction: Models delayed shipments and port congestion to predict exactly how long current reserves will last and when shortages will begin.
- Scenario Simulation: Conducts "what-if" analysis (e.g., closures of the Strait for 14 days or oil reaching $150/barrel) to allow for contingency planning before a crisis occurs.
- Reserves Optimisation: Determines the optimal timing and volume for releasing strategic reserves, prioritising specific regions and sectors to prevent depletion.
- Demand Control: Detects panic buying patterns early to assist governments in implementing targeted rationing and intelligent pricing policies.
- Regional Coordination: Enables shared intelligence and coordinated procurement strategies between neighbouring countries (eg, South Asian regional blocks).
The transition from treating LPG shortages as local operational issues to recognising them as interconnected global emergencies is vital. To effectively manage future volatility, following measures are essential:
- AI-driven early warning systems linked directly to global energy intelligence.
- Predictive supply chain models that account for geopolitical variables.
- Smart allocation systems for demand management.
- Integrated national crisis dashboards to provide real-time visibility to policymakers.
As geopolitical shocks can disrupt energy flows overnight, national resilience is no longer solely dependent on the physical supply of fuel but on the intelligence, speed, and adaptability provided by AI systems.
Among South Asian nations facing similar energy vulnerabilities, Sri Lanka stands out due to its high dependence on imported fuel and limited buffers against external shocks.
The Way Forward for Sri Lanka
Fuel and LPG shortages will remain a risk in an increasingly uncertain global environment. Geopolitical tensions, economic pressures, and climate-related disasters will continue to challenge national energy systems.
To protect its citizens and economy, Sri Lanka must invest in:
- Predictive energy management systems
- Digital supply chain monitoring
- Strategic fuel reserves
- Data-driven decision-making
AI-Enabled Crisis Response Capabilities
By embracing artificial intelligence, Sri Lanka can move from crisis management to crisis prevention and build a more resilient future.
Energy security is not just about having enough fuel. It is about having the intelligence to manage it wisely.
Artificial intelligence provides Sri Lanka with a powerful tool to anticipate risks, protect essential services, and ensure stability in times of uncertainty.
(Nalinda Somasiri is AI and Data Science Faculty Dean at York St John University, UK. The views expressed in this piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views)
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