The Weather Report: Why North continues to remain cold as mercury soars in South India

The week starting 30 January was another typical winter week. It started with dry and cold weather and ended on a wet note for the Himalayan region, plains of North, East and North-East India.Weather was mainly clear and dry for most days between 30 January and 5 February over South and Central India. Nights were cold in the central parts of the country, with a Western Disturbance passing through northern states, while down south summer seems to be making a gradual entry in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Region-wise precipitation between 1 January 2022 and 5 February 2022:

• Northwest India: Actual 88.4mm against the normal of 38.6mm, +129 per cent departure from normal.
• East and North-East India: Actual 51.1mm against the normal of 23.5mm, +117 per cent departure from normal.
• Central India: Actual 24.7mm against the normal of 8.7mm, +184 per cent departure from normal.
• Southern Peninsula: Actual 19.9mm against the normal of 8.9mm, +123 per cent departure from normal.

The excess rainfall in India is attributed to the passage of frequent Western Disturbances, one of which hit North and East India in this week during the period of 2-4 February.Hills of North India are once again buried in fresh heavy snowfall, thanks to Western Disturbances. A low pressure area got induced over Punjab which attracted a lot of moisture-feeding winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal leading to another round of heavy snowfall over Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.Lower ranges of Himalayas also witnessed snowfall activities for a long time.

• Naukuchiatal in Uttarakhand at the altitude of 1,218m witnessed Snowfall after many decades.
• As per locals, Nainital City had heavy and continuous snowfall for 24 hours after 2006.

Total rainfall & snowfall accumulation from 2-5 February on hill stations:Himachal Pradesh (Rainfall)Palampur 36.2mmChamba 11.0mmDharamshala 45.9mmKangra 37.2mmBhuntar 40.0mmMandi 33.3mmUna 54.2mmBilaspur 54.5mmNahan 85.1mmSolan 57.6mmSundernagar 33.5mmHimachal Pradesh (Snowfall)Kothi 70.5cmKhadrala 73.2cmNichar 30.4cmChaupal 78.1cmMoorang 5.0cmKukumsheri 10.3cmBijahi 83.0cmKeylong 5.0cmKufri 80.0cmDalhousie 47.5cmShimla 55.7cmKalpa 19.9cmPooh 2.3cmManali 35.0cmSaloni 45.0cmShillaroo 45.0cmBharmaur 22.0cmJubbal 20.0cmJhanjheli 28.0cmSangla 2.5cmSumdo 1.0cmGondhla 12.0cmKasauli 10.0cmKandaghat 5.8cmUttarakhand (Rainfall)Dehradun 32.0mmPantnagar 27.4mmMukteshwar 52.4mmTehri 31.3mmUttarakhand (Snowfall)Dhanolti 106.6cmNainital 50.3cmChakrata 40.5cmMukteshwar 37.0cmMunsiyari 30.4cmSama 6.3cmRanichawri 5.0cmTehri 3.0cmPithoragarh 1.5cmJammu & Kashmir, Ladakh (Rainfall/Snowfall)Srinagar 11.2mm / -Qazi Gund 12.4mm / 2.0cmPahalgam 45.3mm / 27.3cmKupwara 5.2mm / 2.6cmKukernag 14.7mm / 9.5cmGulmarg 25.6mm / 21.4cmMuzzafrabad 14.0mm / -Leh 1.5mm / 1.7cmJammu 11.0mmBanihal 21.6mm / 2.6cmBatote 14.8mmKatra 15.6mmBhaderwah 23.0mm / 0.7cmKathua 18.8mm / -Udhampur 29.4mm / -Kargil 5.4mm / -Kufri -4.2°C, Ranichauri -4.2°C, Mussoorie -2.7°C, and Nainital -1.0°C recorded the coldest morning of the season on 5 February.Along with the hills, rain and cold days made a comeback in the plains. On 3 February, Delhi at 14.4°C recorded lowest maximum temperature in the last 19 years for the month of February, also it is the 4th lowest maximum temperature in the last 71 years, as per the records of Indian Meteorological Department.

• On 1 February 1970 the maximum temperature was 12.3°C.
• On 21 February 1954 the maximum temperature was 13.9°C.
• On 1 February 2003 the maximum temperature was 14.3°C.

Various parts of East India were also battered by hailstorms and intense rainfall activities. Farmers in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal have suffered damage to mustard, wheat crops and vegetables like potatoes.Record rainfall in East India on 4 February:

• Malda (West Bengal) recorded 58.5mm which is a new all-time record for February, previous was 45.0mm on 22 February 1942.
• Bhagalpur (Bihar) 37.1mm new ATR for February month, previous was 26.7mm on 14 February 1972.
• Patna (Bihar) 36.2mm, highest one-day rainfall at least since 2011, ATR is 40.6mm as of 6 February 1949.

On 5 February the eastern-moving Western Disturbance brought some fresh snowfall in the town of Dirang, Arunachal Pradesh, for the first time in 15 Years. Gangtok, Sikkim recorded 1.7°C Minimum Temperature; it is the lowest temperature for the month of February during the last 14 years.Weather forecast from 6-12 February 2022

• Two successive Western Disturbances are expected to impact North India during this week.
• A weak Western Disturbance will approach the Himalayas on 6 February; it will bring fresh light snowfall in Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh.
• A moderate Western Disturbance to impact North India hills and plains on 9 February; fresh snowfall will be observed in Himalayas; scattered light to moderate rains in Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan, Delhi-NCR and Uttar Pradesh.
• Western Disturbance will impact parts of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal on 10 February; scattered light to moderate rains and hailstorms may occur.
• Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu are expected to remain dry with clear weather.

Detailed forecast from 6-12 FebruaryNorth India

• Weak Western Disturbance on 6-7th February.
• Moderate Western Disturbance along with induced cyclonic circulation on 8-9 February.

Forecast for Hills: Under the influence of back-to-back Western Disturbances, on 6-7 February Kashmir, Leh, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh may witness scattered fresh light snowfall. The accumulation will not be quite significant during this spell. Another Western Disturbance will bring a good amount of fresh snowfall over Kashmir, Leh, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand from the night to 8th February till 9th February, during this period day -time temperature will be severely below normal. After this passage of Western Disturbance, Cold wave conditions might be observed in the hilly states during the period of 10-12 February as night temperatures are expected to fall.Forecast for Plains: During the period of 6-8 February, dense fog is expected in many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and northern Rajasthan in the morning hours, reducing the on-ground visibility to 100m or below. Days will be sunny with a rise in day temperature around 20°C and above 25°C in south Rajasthan. Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh and parts of north Rajasthan are expected to receive fresh spells of light to moderate showers on 9 February; this spell will ensure another cold day in parts of North-West India on 9 February. Overall, day and night temperature will remain below normal throughout this week.Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 6-12 February

• Punjab: 4.0 to 10.0°C, 15.0 to 21.0°C.
• Haryana: 5.0 to 10.0°C, 15.0 to 22.0°C.
• Rajasthan: 4.0 to 11.0°C, 19.0 to 27.0°C.
• Delhi NCR: 6.0 to 11.0°C, 17.0 to 23.0°C.
• Uttar Pradesh: 6.0 to 11.0°C, 18.0 to 25.0°C.

Central India

• Cool North-West winds during 6-10 February.
• Dry Weather throughout the week.

In absence of any effective weather system, mainly clear and dry weather is expected in most parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra during the period of 6-12 February. Parts of northern Chhattisgarh are expected to receive light to moderate rains and thundershowers on 10 February.During 6-8 February, both night and day temperature is expected to rise by 2-3°C. As a Western Disturbance will start impacting North India, it will push cool north-west winds in central India on 9 February, resulting in fall in day and night temperatures by 3-4°C on 9-10 February.Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 6-12 February

• Gujarat: 10.0 to 17.0°C, 25.0 to 33.0°C.
• Maharashtra: 12.0 to 21.0°C, 24.0 to 32.0°C.
• Madhya Pradesh: 5.0 to 12.0°C, 20.0 to 30.0°C.
• Chhattisgarh: 9.0 to 16.0°C, 23.0 to 31.0°C.

East India

• Cool North-West winds during 6-9 February.
• Western Disturbance impact during 9-10 February.

Mainly clear and dry weather is expected across Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and North East India during 6-9 February. Under the influence of cool North-West winds night and day temperature is expected to fall by 2-3°C over the next three days.Fresh Western Disturbance will impact East India during 9-10 February. Southerly winds on lower levels will do moisture feeding for this system.Light to Moderate rains are expected to occur in Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal, the spread and intensity of rains will be way lower compared to what we experienced in the past week.Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh Upper hills to get fresh light snowfall on 10 February. Parts of Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Mizoram to receive light to moderate showers on 10-11 February, chances of heavy or intense rains are on lower end.Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 6-12 February

• Bihar: 8.0 to 15.0°C, 19.0 to 27.0°C.
• Jharkhand: 8.0 to 15.0°C, 23.0 to 31.0°C.
• West Bengal: 10.0 to 18.0°C, 22.0 to 30.0°C.
• Odisha: 11.0 to 18.0°C, 25.0 to 32.0°C.
• North East India: 3.0 to 11.0°C, 17.0 to 24.0°C.

South India

• Dry Northerly winds.
• No other significant weather system.

As no significant weather system is expected to impact the southern peninsula during this week, we can expect mainly clear and dry weather throughout this week. Under the influence of Northerly winds, pleasant nights will continue in most parts of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Goa and Karnataka; minimum temperatures will be below 20°C in most stations of interiors and around 20°C in coastal areas.We expect sizzling hot afternoons in the interiors of Tamil Nadu and Kerala throughout this week. Some places might record maximum temperature in the range of 36-39°C, nights to be pleasant as clear skies will lead to decrease in minimum temperature and heat will comfortably release back to the atmosphere.Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 6-12 February

• Telangana: 13.0 to 18.0°C, 27.0 to 35.0°C.
• Andhra Pradesh: 18.0 to 23.0°C, 28.0 to 36.0°C.
• Goa: 20.0 to 22.0°C, 29.0 to 32.0°C.
• Karnataka: 13.0 to 20.0°C, 27.0 to 34.0°C.
• Tamil Nadu: 22.0 to 27.0°C, 30.0 to 39.0°C.
• Kerala: 22.0 to 27.0°C, 34.0 to 38.0°C.

The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.