Pakistan tests Babur III missile: How should India interpret this latest move?

Representational image. AFP[/caption]While the release was silent about the submarine platform to which Babur III will be integrated, press reports suggest that the Pakistan Navy's Agosta 90B class — the so-called Khalid class — submarines are a natural existing platform of choice; these submarines have cruise-missile launch capabilities. The SLCM itself is a variant of the land-launched cruise-missile (LLCM) system, Babur II. Pakistan had tested an enhanced version of this LLCM mid-December last year.With the successful test of the Babur III SLCM, Pakistan is now a step closer to a functional nuclear triad, albeit in a very limited way. While this does complicate Indian strategic calculations in the event that the two countries go to war, it is important to establish three key points this test does — or does not — signify vis-à-vis Pakistan's capabilities, doctrines and timing.One, for close observers of Pakistan's military, the test-launch of Babur-3 does not come entirely as a surprise. Pakistan had established a nuclear naval authority — the Naval Strategic Force Command — in 2013. Indian naval analysts have maintained that it was only a matter of time before the land-launched Babur system was adapted for submarine launches. But for a naval arm of a nuclear triad to be truly successful — in the sense of being survivable in event of combat — the type of submarines to be used to launch the missiles becomes equally important as the missiles themselves.Ideally, a benchmark nuclear triad will incorporate nuclear-powered submarines that can stay under water almost indefinitely. Such boats, coupled to nuclear sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), can also be used for long-range force projection. The naval arm of the Indian nuclear triad is supported by the INS Arihant — a nuclear-powered submarine with SLBM capabilities — which was quietly commissioned by the Indian Navy in August last year. The premier weapons for INS Arihant are the K-4 SLBMs which reportedly have a range of 3,500 kilometres. The K-4s were tested in April last year. The existing Pakistani Khalid-class submarines are diesel-powered, based on dated French technology. The Babur III — as noted earlier — has a range of a measly 450 kilometres.Of course, the targets for Pakistani submarines are quite different from that of India's. The Indian Navy seeks to operate in the entire Indo-Pacific (to deter and deny Chinese capabilities) while the Pakistan Navy has a sole objective — to target India. For the former, nuclear-powered submarines are an imperative; for the latter, they are not.Having said that, even with Babur III mated with the Khalid-class submarines, the Pakistani nuclear triad doesn't come close to meeting international standards at this stage.Two, a submarine-based nuclear-weapons system only makes strategic sense as a second-strike capability. The scenario that drives the deployment of such systems is where a country deters its adversary from initiating a nuclear first-strike by guaranteeing that it will meet the same with an assured retaliatory second-strike. As such, nuclear triads bolster deterrence and strategic stability. Submarine-based launch systems are much more survivable than land-based ones and relatively more immune to defensive systems that the adversary may have in place to deter and defeat a second-strike. India has a declared policy of a nuclear No-First-Use (NFU), driven by its conventional superiority over Pakistan which assures Indian policy makers that a nuclear first-strike posture is unnecessary. Given this — and the fact that Pakistan's military remains fixated on India alone — how does one square it with Pakistan's quest for a nuclear triad?