Coronavirus Lockdown: GDP data set to show economy grew at its slowest pace in 2 years in March quarter, says report

Unlike some advanced economies, India’s stimulus package has largely focussed on subsidised credit to small businesses and farmers, while direct fiscal stimulus was limited to around 1 percent of the GDP, economists said.

|May 29, 2020, 07:49:02 IST

New Delhi: Gross domestic product data out later on Friday is expected to show the economy grew at its slowest pace in at least two years in the March quarter as the coronavirus pandemic weakened already declining consumer demand and private investment.

The median forecast from a Reuters poll of economists put annual economic growth at 2.1 percent in the March quarter, lower than 4.7 percent in the December quarter. Forecasts ranged between +4.5 percent and -1.5 percent.Prime Minister Narendra Modi has maintained the lockdown ordered on 25 March to curb the spread of COVID-19 in the world’s second most populous country, though many restrictions were eased for manufacturing, transport and other services from 18 May.The full impact of the lockdown on manufacturing and services will become more apparent in the June quarter, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 45 percent contraction from a year ago.Economists expect the fiscal year that began in April will see the worst economic contraction in four decades.“Economic activity will face ongoing disruption over the next year as the country transitions to a post-COVID-19 world,” the rating agency S&P said on Thursday, cutting its 2020/21 forecast to a 5 percent contraction.Weather forecasts for normal monsoon rains are in Indian farmers’ favour at least, giving hope that the rural sector can help support the millions of migrant workers who returned to their villages from the cities when the lockdown began.Number of coronavirus affected people in India has crossed 158,000 with 4,531 deaths, with an average daily jump of 6,000 cases in the last one week.Unlike some advanced economies, India’s stimulus package has largely focussed on subsidised credit to small businesses and farmers, while direct fiscal stimulus was limited to around 1 percent of the GDP, economists said.The Reserve Bank of India cut policy rates by 40 basis points earlier this month, and has reduced its key repo rate by 115 basis points since February.

Stroke in young adults, silent symptoms and late diagnosis: India's growing brain health challenge

Neurologists warn that stroke is increasingly affecting people in their 30s and 40s, while many brain disorders progress silently before symptoms appear. They say early diagnosis, timely referrals and healthier lifestyles are key to reducing India's growing neurological disease burden.

5 min read

Brain tumours aren't always fatal, but delayed diagnosis can be: Experts explain the key warning signs

Brain tumours are frequently mistaken for common headaches, stress or age-related cognitive changes. Doctors say recognising warning signs early and adopting a brain-healthy lifestyle can improve outcomes and reduce the risk of long-term neurological complications.

2 min read

Spices, health and the Indian plate: Why chilli can be good for you—but moderation is still key

From boosting metabolism to supporting heart health, chillies offer several surprising health benefits. But experts say the amount you eat matters, and too much spice can do more harm than good.

4 min read

Organ donation: 5 myths you need to stop believing, according to a transplant specialist

Organ donation has the power to transform and save lives, but this can happen only when myths are replaced with facts. Building awareness, having open conversations and understanding the process can help families make informed decisions.

2 min read

Fish over meat: Why a pescatarian diet may help people with obesity live longer

A large UK study tracking over 150,000 adults with clinical obesity found pescatarians outlived regular meat-eaters, while vegetarians and vegans saw no similar benefit, but experts say the findings don't translate simply to Indian diets.