Why oil never hit $200? Surge in US exports helped absorb Hormuz supply shock

The global oil market has avoided the extreme price surge many analysts feared after the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and a major reason could be the unexpected strength of US crude exports.

According to economist Robin Brooks, the latest US Census Bureau trade data for April 2026 shows that America played a key role in cushioning the global supply shock by significantly increasing oil exports.

Brooks noted that US crude and refined product exports surged in April, challenging predictions that Brent crude prices could climb to $150–$200 per barrel following the Hormuz crisis.

"The resilience of the global oil trade is perhaps the single biggest thing that oil bulls got wrong with their $150 or $200 forecasts," Brooks said in his analysis.

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US oil surplus doubles in April

The US monthly oil trade surplus — exports minus imports — jumped to 131 million barrels in April 2026 from 65 million barrels in March, according to the data cited by Brooks.

The increase was significant because the estimated supply disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz stood at nearly 10 million barrels per day, or around 300 million barrels per month.

Brooks estimates that the improvement in the US oil trade balance alone helped offset nearly one-fifth of the monthly supply shortfall.

The biggest change came from crude oil. The US crude trade deficit narrowed sharply from around 70 million barrels in March to just 10 million barrels in April.

Was it just because of SPR releases?

One argument from oil market bulls has been that higher exports were mainly due to releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

However, Brooks argues that the numbers do not support that claim.

US crude exports increased to 167 million barrels in April from 125 million barrels in March, a jump of around 42 million barrels. During the same period, SPR drawdowns stood at about 17 million barrels.

This suggests that emergency reserves accounted for only part of the increase. Instead, higher international prices created incentives for US producers to send more crude to regions facing shortages.

US supply helped Asia after Hormuz disruption

The Strait of Hormuz disruption hit Asian energy markets particularly hard because the region depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil supplies.

As prices rose, market forces redirected more US crude toward areas facing tighter supply.

Brooks said this shows that global oil markets have been more flexible than expected, with international trade helping spread the impact of the shock rather than allowing individual countries to face severe shortages.

Exports of refined products such as gasoline and jet fuel also remained near record levels, though Brooks noted that the main stabilising factor was crude oil.

Why $200 oil forecasts failed

The key lesson from the latest data, according to Brooks, is that global oil markets have become more resilient.

While the Hormuz disruption created a serious supply shock, rising US exports, alternative suppliers, and flexible trade flows helped prevent the extreme scenarios predicted by some analysts.

"The US has been a genuine stabilizer for global oil markets and that’s about something much bigger than the SPR," Brooks said.

For now, the surge in American crude exports appears to be one of the biggest reasons why oil prices did not spiral toward $200 per barrel.