Decoding Goa economy: What is ailing the costal state amidst developing political crisis?

Unlike other Indian states, the economy and political administration of Goa has a peculiar nature. Carmen Sharmila Pais in the thesis submitted to Goa University in 2017 explains that it was Portugues who introduced election in Goa in the year 1821 and it continued till there exist in 1961. The thesis further explains that the colonial Goa had voted in the Parliament of Portugal and a section of Goa population were allowed in public administration; municipal, parochial, legislative or the government councils, the colonial council and the presidential elections of Portuguese dominion during the republican period. The 19th century witnessed the emergence of Goan elite questioned the Luso-descendant community of Portuguese Goa. The post-independent Goa continues to experience the political instability and subject to the elite interests.Table 1: Governments, Chief Ministers and their tenure

Sl.No.	Name of Chief Ministers	From	To	Party	Years in office
1	Dayanand Bandodkar	20 December 1963	2 December 1966	MGP	3 years
	President's rule	2 December 1966	5 April 1967		1 year
2	Dayanand Bandodkar	5 April 1967	12 August 1973	MGP	6 years
3	Shashikala Kakodkar	12 August 73	27 April 1979	MGP	6Year
	President's rule	27 April 1979	16 January 1980		1 year
4	Pratapsingh Rane	16 January 1980	27 March 1990	(INC)(U)	1 year
5	Churchill Alemao	27 March 1990	14 April 1990	Progressive Democratic Front	19 days
6	Dr. Luis Proto Barbosa	14 April 1990	14 December 1990	Progressive Democratic Front	240 days
	President's rule	14 December 1990	25 January 1991		1 year
7	Ravi S. Naik	25 January 1991	18 May 1993	INC	2 year
8	Dr Wilfred de Souza	18 May 1993	2 April 1994	INC	1 year
9	Ravi S. Naik	2 April 1994	8 April 1994	INC	6 days
10	Dr Wilfred de Souza	8 April 1994	16 December 1994	INC	238 days
11	Pratapsing Rane	16 December 1994	30 July 1998	INC	4 years
12	Dr Wilfred de Souza	30 July 1998	26 November 1998	Goa Rajiv Congress	150 Days
13	Luizinho Faleiro	26 November 1998	9 February 1999	INC	1 year
	President's rule	9 February 1999	9 June 1999		120 days
14	Luizinho Faleiro	9 Jun 1999	24 November 1999	INC	less than 6 months
15	Francisco Sardinha	24 November 1999	24 October 2000	Goa People's Congress	1
16	Manohar Parrikar	24 October 2000	2 February 2005	BJP	5 years
17	Pratapsing Rane	2 February 2005	4 March 2005	INC	one month
	President's rule	4 March 2005	7 Jun 2005		three months
18	Pratapsing Rane	7 June 2005	8 June 2007	INC	2 years
19	Digambar Kamat	8 June 2007	9 March 2012	INC	5 Years
20	Manohar Parrikar	9 March 2012	8 Novermber 2014	BJP	8 months
21	Laxmikant Parsekar	8 November 2014	14 March 2017	BJP	less than 5 months
22	Manohar Parrikar	14 March 2017	Present	BJP

Source: Goa AssemblyIt is evident from the table that no government has completed its full term from 1993 to 2000. It was Manohar Parrikar from 2000 to 2005 who completed five years after Independence, after the Congress ruled the state from 2007 to 2012.  However, the economy of Goa is resilient enough to accommodate the political changes. It is possible because of tourism and mining that dominates the economy. These two sectors are primarily run by private capital which needs government support to operate.About 10.2 percent of the population is engaged in tourism, and as per the Tourism Ministry of India, every Rs 1,00,00,00 invested in tourism generates 78 jobs. However, much of this investment is from the private sector. So every tourism-dependent economy has to have a flexible regulatory measure to attract more tourism even at the cost of the environment. The Goa government keeps a flexible tourism policy. Mining is the second biggest industry in the state.

Table 1. The sectoral growth rate of GSDP at constant (2011-12) prices
Agriculture, forestry and fishing	13.57	0.11	0.75	5.83
Mining and quarrying	-98.45	-5.35	1130.6	343.27
Primary sector	-48.83	0.03	15.88	53.65
Manufacturing	-26.86	68.99	11.84	17.99
Secondary sector	-20.1	56.65	13.77	18.36
Source: Goa, Economic Survey, 2017

Interestingly, the mining sector is growing at a higher rate compared to other sectors. The royalty collected by the Goa government from major minerals till 2017 was Rs 122.09 crore and minor minerals Rs 6.36 crore.Here is the M B Shah Commission's report on illegal mining operations and huge extraction of resources.See graph 1 which gives a brief outline of how the mining sector operates in the state and the number of people working in this sector.

Table 2. Performance under Annual Credit Plan as on ( Rs in Crore)
Sector	Target for the quarter 30.09.2017	Achievement upto 30.09.2017	% Achievement
Agri Crop Loan	219.9	126.72	57.63
Agri Term loans	236.62	111.8	47.24
Sub Total Agri	456.52	238.52	52.25
Agricultural Infra	26.94	10.5	38.97
Allied Activities	21.42	122.09	569.98
Agri Total	504.88	371.11	73.5
MSME	1842.76	1247.48	67.69
Export Credit	274.88	8.18	2.97
Education	201.88	38.42	19.03
Housing	648.8	422.9	65.18
Renewable Energy	3.8	0.14	3.68
Others	35.46	42.38	119.51
Social Infra	46.6	4.28	9.18
Total	3559.06	2134.89	59.98
Source: Goa, Economic Survey, 2017

The other economic sectors of the state is not performing on par with tourism and mining. An assessment of the performance of annual credit plan of the state gives glimpses the state government. (See Table 2)Renewable energy, export credit and social infrastructure are least performing among all sectors. Among them social infrastructure deserve special attention since the dependency on private health is high in Goa, this has to contextually analyzed with the decreasing quality of environmental health in Goa.The general unemployment rate of Goa shown an overall decreasing trend ( See graph 2). However as per the report on Fifth Annual Employment - Unemployment Survey 2015-15, the rural unemployment rate of Goa rose to 11.3 percent in 2013-14 to 15 percent in 2015-16.Graph 2. General Unemployment rate of GoaThe emerging political crisis of Goa has to be assessed with reference to the economic status of the state. In Goa, the economic policy does not need any major revision. The economy of Goa is not growing at a higher rate, the year-on-year growth rate prove this.See graph 3Graph 3. Year-on-Year growth ratio of State GDPAny sudden economic policy shift is not possible in this context. Also, the Opposition parties do not have any alternative agenda such as to regulate illegal mining, public investment on health care, increasing employment rate and responsible tourism, etc.(The writer is Assistant Professor, Jamsetji Tata School of Disaster Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences)