Critical minerals, Taiwan and AI wars: Trump-Xi meeting could reshape global geopolitics

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Beijing this week for high-stakes talks that could define the future trajectory of the world’s most important and volatile bilateral relationship.

The summit is taking place at an exceptionally fragile geopolitical moment, less than a year after Washington and Beijing stepped back from a bruising tariff and rare earth confrontation that had threatened to spiral into a full-scale economic rupture and amid a rapidly escalating US-Iran war that has rattled global oil markets, disrupted shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz, and heightened fears of a wider regional conflict.

China, one of Iran’s biggest oil buyers, has come under increasing pressure from Washington to use its influence over Tehran, even as tensions between the US and China remain elevated over sanctions, technology restrictions and Taiwan.

The meeting also comes as the international order is being reshaped simultaneously by trade wars, technological rivalry, military tensions, AI competition and supply-chain battles. While tariffs and trade balances remain important, the real significance of the Trump-Xi meeting lies in a deeper contest over technology, strategic resources, critical minerals and geopolitical influence.

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Trump will arrive in Beijing on Wednesday for a two-day visit expected to feature discussions on critical minerals, rare earth supply chains, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, Iran, trade, investment and nuclear security. Analysts say the outcome could influence global markets, military calculations, semiconductor supply chains and the broader balance of power across Asia and beyond for years to come.

Critical minerals become the new geopolitical weapon

One of the most closely watched aspects of the summit is expected to be negotiations surrounding rare earths and critical minerals, resources now viewed as the backbone of modern economic and military power.

Critical minerals are essential for semiconductors, electric vehicles, advanced weapons systems, AI infrastructure, aerospace manufacturing and renewable energy technologies. China currently dominates much of the global mining, refining and processing ecosystem, giving Beijing enormous leverage over global supply chains.

US and Chinese officials are expected to discuss extending an existing rare earths agreement that has allowed continued Chinese mineral exports to the United States despite wider geopolitical tensions.

For Washington, the issue has become increasingly urgent. The United States wants to reduce dependency on Chinese-controlled supply chains but remains deeply reliant on Beijing for materials essential to advanced manufacturing and defence industries. The discussions reflect a growing reality in global geopolitics: future conflicts may be shaped as much by access to minerals and chips as by military strength.

Taiwan remains the most explosive issue

Taiwan is expected to remain one of the most sensitive flashpoints during the summit. China views the democratically governed island as part of its territory and has repeatedly criticised US arms sales and diplomatic support for Taipei. Washington, meanwhile, continues to position Taiwan as central to Indo-Pacific stability and regional deterrence.

Trump has already indicated that Taiwan-related military discussions will form part of the summit agenda. The issue has gained additional importance amid rising military activity near the Taiwan Strait and growing concerns among US allies such as Japan over regional security risks. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has previously voiced support for Taiwan’s security, comments that further strained Beijing-Tokyo relations.

Analysts warn that Taiwan increasingly represents the most dangerous potential military flashpoint between the United States and China.

AI rivalry enters centre stage

Artificial intelligence is also emerging as a major strategic battleground between the two superpowers. US officials have expressed growing concern over rapid advances in Chinese AI systems and are seeking communication mechanisms with Beijing to avoid future conflicts arising from AI-driven technologies.

The competition over AI extends beyond economics. Both Washington and Beijing increasingly view artificial intelligence as critical to military superiority, cyber operations, surveillance capabilities and future industrial leadership.

The summit is expected to explore whether formal communication channels can be established to reduce risks linked to AI escalation and technological misunderstandings.

Trade and investment tensions remain unresolved

Despite broader geopolitical tensions, trade remains deeply intertwined between the two economies. Officials have indicated that both sides are expected to discuss mechanisms aimed at facilitating trade and investment cooperation. China may also announce major purchases involving Boeing aircraft, American agriculture and energy imports during the summit.

At the same time, reports of a proposed $1 trillion Chinese investment package into American factories have generated sharp controversy in Washington. The proposal reportedly involves easing tariffs and relaxing restrictions under America’s national-security investment screening system.

Critics within Trump’s own political ecosystem argue such moves could undermine America’s economic security architecture and deepen strategic dependence on China.

Iran crisis adds urgency to Beijing talks

The ongoing Iran conflict is also expected to dominate parts of the summit.

China remains a major buyer of Iranian oil and maintains strong economic ties with Tehran. Washington is expected to pressure Beijing to use its influence over Iran to help stabilise the region following recent military escalations involving the US and Israel. The issue carries major global economic implications because disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz threaten energy flows critical to Asian and global markets.

A summit shaping the next world order

More than a diplomatic engagement, the Trump-Xi summit represents a broader struggle over who will shape the next phase of global power. The meeting highlights how the US-China rivalry is no longer confined to tariffs or trade deficits. It now spans minerals, semiconductors, AI systems, military deterrence, supply chains and energy security.

At the heart of the summit lies a paradox shaping the modern world: the United States and China are strategic rivals competing for global dominance, yet they remain economically dependent on each other in ways neither side can easily escape.

How both leaders manage that contradiction may determine the future of the global economy and geopolitical stability in the coming decade.