Finally, the ad business wakes up to the slowdown

It was a surprise to read this in this morning's Brand Equity: "A similar fatalism appears to have large parts of India's marketing and marketing communications business in its grasp. Almost everyone we've spoken to on this story believe, yes, things have never been this bad. Yes, they are hoping and praying for a good festive season, encouraged by a strong monsoon and an increase in rural demand. And beyond that, who knows?", in an article headlined "Indian marketing industry prepares to fight its way out of an ever deepening crisis".

[caption id="attachment_108377" align="alignleft" width="380"] Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Brand Ambassador, Pepsi[/caption]

It was a surprise because, for reasons I cannot fathom, the Indian advertising and media businesses tend to gloss over problems in their own industries and try to talk up the situation, however grim it might be. Therefore, when one reads, "Almost everyone we've spoken to on this story believe, yes, things have never been this bad," it's a great first step - acknowledgement.

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Things are tough - and seem to get tougher by the day. As marketers begin to feel the pinch, so will advertising and media agencies as they get squeezed.

Here's what we will see in the year ahead:

1. More pitches than ever before, in the creative, media and digital businesses. This will lead to pressure to reduce existing retainers in a bid to stave off the pitch

2. More marketers changing business terms from retainers to project based fees

3. More marketers reducing retainers to creative agencies and shifting part of the savings to digital agencies

4. Media spends cut, which means tough times for media houses. This could also mean media agencies who are on a commission rather than a fee lose out on revenue

5. Marketers wanting more measurement. Wherever there is an absence of measurement, as in print, marketers will use this as an excuse to bring down prices

6. In TV, niche channels will face pressure on yields - more than they already face

As a result, here's what we'll see in the year ahead:

1. Salary freezes - and cuts in some agencies and media houses

2. Job cuts, across the board, at even the highest levels at agencies and media houses. The worst hit will be those with international parentage as they will have to remit royalties/ profits in dollars

3. Those above 45 in creative and media agencies, except the stars, will be in trouble

4. Increments will be selective, with only the highest performers benefiting

5. Already established digital shops will be okay; the new ones will find it tough going

6. New creative agencies will be launched by senior creatives leaving network agencies - and they will take away chunks of business that they worked on

7. Digital (in all forms) will grow faster than any projection has suggested

8. Marketers will invest in people and consultants to up their game in Facebook, twitter and YouTube in particular

9. Social media and digital analytics companies will be the flavour of the day. They will boom!

10. Forget about offsites at exotic locales. Forget about offsites, period

11. Except for the two creative agencies that Publicis is in final stages of negotiations with, acquisitions will be limited to digital agencies

12. There will be pressure on production houses to bring down prices - and they will. If they don't, a new lot of existing production companies will come to the fore. Marketers will put their foot down - hard

13. The number of shoots at foreign destinations will come down significantly, as will post-production

14. Fees paid to brand ambassadors will come down sharply. Much fewer brand endorsement deals will be struck

15. Good PR companies will benefit as marketers scramble to increase their track record with unpaid media

Brace yourselves for a really rough ride. And it's not in some distant future - it's a future that starts now. Today.